企业所得税改革与外资企业退出——基于“两税合一”的准自然实验  

Corporate Income Tax Reform and Exit of Foreign-invested Enterprises:A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the‘China's Income Taxes Consolidation’

作　　者：王树昊 于淼 李川川 段科宇 Wang Shuhao;Yu Miao;Li Chuanchuan;Duan Keyu

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院 [2]南开大学国际经济研究所 [3]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院 [4]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2025年第2期98-112,127,共16页Macroeconomics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(24YJC790088)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以2008年实施的“两税合一”所得税改革为准自然实验,结合中国工业企业数据库,使用双重差分法,考察了“两税合一”所得税改革对外资企业退出的影响效应。研究发现,“两税合一”所得税改革整体上显著提高了外资企业退出的概率,但并未显著提高来自港澳台地区企业的退出概率。这一结论在考虑中国工业企业数据库调查标准调整、使用“三年法则”识别外资企业退出、匹配中国工商企业变更信息、调整识别策略和使用子样本等一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。进一步的分析表明,“两税合一”所得税改革显著提高了劳动密集型外资企业退出概率,显著降低了技术密集型外资企业退出概率,对外资结构存在优化效应。机制分析表明,“两税合一”所得税改革一是通过研发激励效应,促进外资企业加大研发投入强度,进而降低退出概率;二是通过生产关联效应,以“下游内资—上游外资”的中间品需求关联效应降低外资企业退出概率,但也存在由于内外资竞争加剧所导致的外资企业退出概率提高。本文的研究从企业税收政策的视角为稳外资提供了经验性证据。This paper takes the 2008 China's Income Taxes Consolidation as a quasi-natural experiment and,using the China Industrial Enterprise Database,employs a difference-in-differences(DID)approach to examine the impact of the reform on the exit of foreign-invested enterprises(FIEs).The study finds that the‘China's Income Taxes Consolidation'reform significantly increased the overall probability of FIE exit but did not have a significant effect on the exit probability of enterprises from Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan.This conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks,including adjustments for changes in the survey criteria of the China Industrial Enterprise Database,identification of FIE exit using the“three-year rule,”matching with business change information from the Chinese industrial and commercial registry,refining the identification strategy,and using subsample analyses.Further analysis shows that the reform significantly increased the exit probability of labor-intensive FIEs while significantly reducing the exit probability of technology-intensive FIEs,suggesting an optimization effect on the structure of foreign investment.Mechanism analysis indicates that the reform operates through two main channels:(1)an R&D incentive effect,whereby increased R&D investment by FIEs lowers their exit probability;and(2)a production linkage effect,whereby the intermediate goods demand linkage between downstream domestic firms and upstream foreign firms reduces FIE exit,although intensified competition between domestic and foreign firms also raises the exit probability of FIEs.This study provides empirical evidence on stabilizing foreign investment from the perspective of corporate tax policy.

关 键 词：两税合一 外资企业退出 双重差分法 生产关联 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]