新时期中国生育率下降的多维因素及对策研究  

A Study on Multidimensional Factors and Countermeasures of Fertility Decline in China in the New Era

作　　者：曹亮[1] 余珊 陈跃 孙一平[4,5] Cao Liang;Yu Shan;Chen Yue;Sun Yiping

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院、国际商务研究所 [2]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院 [3]武汉工商学院管理学院 [4]湖北经济学院工商管理学院 [5]中南财经政法大学国际商务研究所

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2025年第2期113-127,共15页Macroeconomics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“劳动力市场灵活性促进我国共同富裕的机制路径及对策研究”(项目编号:23BJL067)的资助。

摘　　要：保持适度生育率和人口规模,是人口高质量发展的必然要求,也是中国式现代化的重要支撑。新时期以来,中国已处于“内生性低生育阶段”,梳理新时期生育率下降的多维因素,着力解决困扰和阻碍民众生育的现实问题至关重要。本文主要运用联合国《世界人口展望2024》和国家统计局的人口数据,结合中国综合社会调查(CGSS)、中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)居民问卷数据和其他相关数据展开研究。首先分析了中国目前的生育现状和存在的问题;其次,从经济、社会、家庭、制度文化四个维度入手,详细梳理了新时期中国生育率下降的多维因素;再次,对比分析德国、法国、日本和韩国的成功经验和失败做法;最后,借鉴国外经验教训,结合中国实际,提出了相关的对策建议。Maintaining an appropriate fertility rate and population size is an inevitable requirement for the high-quality population development and an important support for Chinese-style modernization.Since China has been in an‘endogenous low fertility stage'in the new era,it is crucial to analyze the multidimensional factors of fertility decline in the new era and focus on solving the real problems that have plagued and hindered people's fertility.This article mainly utilizes the demographic data from the World Population Prospects 2024 by United Nations and the National Bureau of Statistics of China and combines the questionnaire data from the China General Social Survey(CGSS),the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),and other related data to carry out the research.Firstly,it analyzes the current fertility situation and problems in China;secondly,it details the multidimensional factors of fertility decline in China in the new era from four dimensions,namely,economy,society,family,and institutional culture;thirdly,it compares and analyzes the successful experiences and failures of Germany,France,Japan,and South Korea;and lastly,puts forward relevant countermeasures and recommendations based on the lessons learned from foreign countries and the actual situation in China.

关 键 词：生育率 生育支持政策 人口高质量发展 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]