中国城镇职工养老金替代率时空差异及影响因素  

Spatial and Temporal Differences in Pension Replacement Rates of Chinese Urban Workers and the Influencing Factors

作　　者：仲光金 ZHONG Guangjin(College of Public Administration and Law,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha Hunan 410128,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学公共管理与法学学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《上饶师范学院学报》2025年第1期50-59,共10页Journal of Shangrao Normal University

基　　金：湖南农业大学研究生科研创新项目(2024XKCB047)。

摘　　要：基于2015—2022年31个省份的面板数据,采用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数与夏普利值分解法探究城镇职工养老金替代率区域差异及其影响因素,研究发现:(1)养老金替代率存在逐年下行与区域差异扩大并存的动态演化趋势;(2)养老金替代率高、中、低值省份空间分布不均,中高值区域数量逐渐提升,低值区域数量减少;(3)养老金替代率区域差异总体波浪式上升趋势,但区域内差异呈增减分化特征;(4)养老金替代率区域间差异存在较大差距,东部—西部的区域差异最大,且呈小幅扩大趋势;西部—东北的区域差异最小,且呈小幅缩小趋势;(5)养老金替代率区域差异是区域内、区域间与超变密度差异共同作用的结果,政府能力是导致区域差异的主要因素。可以采用以下政策调控城镇职工养老金替代率区域差异:坚持区域协调发展,提升基础养老金待遇标准;优化财政支出结构,完善财政转移支付;积极应对人口老龄化、引导人口合理流动。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)from 2015 to 2022,the kernel density estimation,Dagum's Gini coefficient and Shapley's value decomposition method are used to explore the regional differences in the replacement rate of urban workers'pension and its influencing factors.The study finds that:(1)there is a dynamic evolutionary trend of downward movement of the pension replacement rate year by year and the expansion of regional differences.(2)The spatial distribution of provinces with high,medium and low pension replacement rates is uneven,with the number of medium and high value regions gradually increasing and the number of low value regions decreasing.(3)The regional differences in pension replacement rates have a general wavy upward trend,but the intra-regional differences are characterized by increase and decrease.(4)There is a large gap between the regional differences in the pension replacement rate,with the largest regional difference between the east and the west,and a slightly expanding trend;the smallest regional difference between the west and the northeast,and a slightly narrowing trend.(5)The regional difference in pension replacement rate is the result of intra-regional,inter-regional and hyper-variable density differences,and the government's ability is the main factor leading to regional differences.To regulate the regional differences in pension replacement rates of urban workers,it is necessary to adhere to the coordinated development of the region,improve the standard of basic pension treatment,optimize the structure of financial expenditures,improve financial transfers,and actively cope with the aging of the population,and guide the reasonable mobility of the population.

关 键 词：城镇职工 养老金替代率 区域差异 政府能力 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]