上海市减污降碳协同效应分析与预测  

Analysis and forecast of the synergy effect of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in Shanghai

作　　者：鲍彦荣 何建佳[1,2] 何胜学[1] 李军祥[1] BAO Yanrong;HE Jianjia;HE Shengxue;LI Junxiang(Business school,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;Center for Super networks Research(China),Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]上海理工大学超网络研究(中国)中心,上海200093

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2025年第4期512-520,共9页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:71871144);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般项目(编号:2023BGL009)。

摘　　要：作为超大城市,上海市的减污降碳工作已经进入了关键阶段,因此需深入探析上海市减污降碳协同情况并对未来做出科学合理预测。基于政策文件将上海市的减污降碳工作分为3个阶段,通过构建协同效应系数模型与耦合协调度模型分析了上海市2006—2021年减污降碳协同效应情况,并运用STIRPAT模型对2022—2030年的碳排放和大气污染物排放进行了预测。研究发现:(1)2006—2021年间上海市减污降碳的协同效果总体处于一般水平,有较多年份的协同效应系数仍为负值,但总体趋势在向协同转变;(2)耦合协调度波动较大,但总体趋势由失调在转向协调发展;(3)预测结果显示,2026年碳排放将达到15 754万t的峰值,预测期间减污降碳的协同效果将保持在相对稳定但较低的水平。因此,未来政府需积极推进第三产业在上海的投资与发展,并制定更为有效的政策措施,以实现减污降碳协同增效与碳达峰的目标。Shanghai,as a mega city,has reached a critical stage in its efforts to reduce pollution and lower carbon emissions.Therefore,it is necessary to deeply explore the collaborative situation of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Shanghai and make scientific and reasonable predictions for the future.Based on policy documents,the pollution reduction and carbon reduction work in Shanghai is divided into three stages.This paper constructed the synergistic effect coefficient model and coupling coordination degree model to analyze the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Shanghai from 2006 to 2021.And this paper used the STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emissions and atmospheric pollutant emissions from 2022 to 2030.The findings indicated that:①From 2006 to 2021,the overall synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in Shanghai was yielded an average performance,with a significant number of years exhibiting negative synergistic effect coefficients.However,the overall trend indicated a move towards increased synergy.②The coupled coordination degree exhibited significant fluctuations,but the overall trend was moving from imbalance towards coordinated development.③The forecast results showed that carbon emissions would peak at 157.54 million tons in 2026,and the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation were expected to remain at a relatively stable but low level during the forecast period.Therefore,the government needs to actively promote investment and development in the tertiary sector in Shanghai and formulate more effective policies and measures to achieve synergistic improvements in pollution reduction and carbon mitigation,as well as to meet the goals of peaking carbon emissions.

关 键 词：减污降碳 协同效应 耦合协调度 STIRPAT模型 偏最小二乘法 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]