混合效用和后悔规则下的洪涝交通疏散决策行为研究  

Flood Evacuation Decision-making Behavior Under Hybrid Utility and Regret Rules

作　　者：晋泽倩 俞诚成 叶昕[1] JIN Zeqian;YU Chengcheng;YE Xin(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学,道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2025年第2期16-25,共10页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(PA2024000218)。

摘　　要：鉴于居民在疏散决策过程中的效用最大和后悔规避混合心理,本文以洪涝灾害下城市居民自主疏散决策行为问题为例,选取个人基本属性、心理感知属性和疏散决策评估属性,构建反映心理偏好异质性的结构方程模型,并将其纳入离散选择模型,建立基于有序Logit的集成潜变量的选择(ICLV)模型。以中国郑州市城市居民疏散数据为例,剖析在洪涝灾害场景下,疏散者于效用最大和后悔规避规则之间的疏散决策异质性,并进一步分析了居民对不同疏散决策属性的支付意愿。结构方程模型结果显示,风险感知能力和自我效能越高的居民越有利于疏散。对比分析有序Logit模型和ICLV模型结果表明:考虑心理感知属性的ICLV模型的预测准确率最高,为0.073,对居民疏散决策行为的刻画更符合实际;两种模型均体现了居民疏散决策行为在效用和后悔决策规则之间的异质性;疏散者倾向于选择出行时间更短、感知灾害风险更小、中间行程次数更少以及背景交通较小的方案疏散。This study aims to investigate the factors that influence urban residents'evacuation decision-making behavior and uncover the heterogeneity between utility-based and regret-based decision-making rules in the face of predictable flood hazards.Considering evacuees'mixed psychology of utility-maximization and regret-avoidance,a framework of the integrated choice and latent variables(ICLV)model was proposed,including individual basic attributes,psychological perception attributes,and evaluation attributes of evacuation decision.By constructing a structural equation model(SEM)reflecting evacuees'psychological preferences and incorporating it into a discrete choice model,an ordered Logit-based ICLV model was established.Based on survey data of residents'evacuation decision behavior from Zhengzhou in China,the results of the SEM show that residents with higher risk perception and self-efficacy are more favorable to evacuation.Through a comparative analysis of the ordered Logit model and the ICLV model,the results indicate that the ICLV model,which takes into account psychological perception attributes,demonstrates the best performance and depicts residents'evacuation decision-making behavior in a more realistic manner.Moreover,both models capture the heterogeneity in residents'evacuation decision behavior between utility and regret decision-making rules.Additionally,evacuees tend to choose evacuation options characterized by shorter travel times,lower perceived disaster risks,fewer intermediate trips,and less background traffic.

关 键 词：城市交通 疏散决策行为 集成潜变量的选择模型 洪涝灾害 有序LOGIT模型 后悔理论 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]