中国淡水养殖业碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系及驱动因素研究——基于Tapio脱钩和LMDI模型  

Decoupling relationship and driving factors between carbon emissions and economic growth in China's freshwater aquaculture industry:based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI model

作　　者：伍大清 刘丽晨 WU Daqing;LIU Lichen(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Strategic Research and Development Center of China Fisheries,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]上海海洋大学,中国渔业发展战略研究中心,上海201306

出　　处：《水产学报》2025年第5期209-221,共13页Journal of Fisheries of China

基　　金：国家社科重大项目子课题,气候变化下“深蓝渔业”产业发展潜力评估研究(21&ZD100);国家现代农业产业技术体系专项(CARS-47-G29);上海哲学社会科学规划课题“新零售模式下生鲜电商O2O决策优化研究”(2020EGL011)。

摘　　要：【目的】在淡水养殖绿色可持续发展的要求下,为促进淡水养殖业碳排放与经济增长的绝对脱钩,实现淡水养殖业低碳绿色转型。【方法】基于脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,分别从中国整体层面及区域层面对2011—2021年淡水养殖碳排放与经济增长的脱钩指数进行核算并探究其脱钩状态的驱动因素。【结果】(1)从宏观层面上,研究期间我国淡水养殖碳排放呈现先增再减后增的态势;全国淡水养殖碳排放与经济增长的耦合状态较稳定。(2)从区域层面看,耦合关系分为稳定型、改善型、衰退型、无序型,各省级行政区差异显著。(3)从影响因素来看,生产效率和劳动力强度对淡水养殖碳减排有促进作用;经济发展强度和产业结构会增加碳排放。【结论】各省级行政区之间淡水养殖碳排放与经济增长的耦合关系发展不平衡,提高生产效率和劳动力强度有助于改善其耦合关系。应从政府部门、科研人员、从业人员等多途径出发,助力淡水养殖碳减排以及经济增长,加快推动产业转型,促进渔业现代化发展,为实现“双碳”目标作出贡献。A series of chain reactions,such as global warming,rising sea levels,endangered species,and oxygen depletion,have caused serious damage to ecosystems and posed tremendous challenges to the survival of humans and other living organisms.Consequently,the task of reducing global carbon emissions has become imperative and urgent.In response,China demonstrated its firm determination in 2020 by committing to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.As climate change and environmental pollution issues become increasingly prominent,the need for China to reduce carbon emissions and achieve low-carbon,green,and sustainable development has become more critical.Freshwater aquaculture,as an important production activity,has attracted widespread attention due to its carbon emissions.Under the influence of scientific and technological progress and policy guidance,China has begun to explore a decoupling path for the freshwater aquaculture industry,aiming to separate economic growth from carbon emissions and seek a sustainable development model.To promote the absolute decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth in freshwater aquaculture,this paper employs the decoupling model and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)decomposition model.It calculates the decoupling index of freshwater aquaculture carbon emissions and economic growth in China from 2011 to 2021 at both the national and regional levels.The study also analyzes the underlying reasons for the decoupling status among different provinces and explores the driving factors of this decoupling state.The results showed that:①At the macro level,freshwater aquaculture carbon emission in China exhibited an initial increase,followed by a decrease,and then an increase again during the study period.The coupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in freshwater aquaculture remained relatively stable.②At the regional level,the coupling relationship was categorized into four types,with significant differences observed among provinces.③In

关 键 词：淡水养殖业 碳排放 经济增长 Tapio脱钩 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：F326.4[经济管理—产业经济] S965[农业科学—水产养殖] X714[农业科学—水产科学]