气候变化与人类活动对渭河源区径流量影响的定量分析  

Quantitative analysis of impact of climate change and human activities on runoffff in source region of Wei River

作　　者：赵永刚 贾杰 姜丽红 ZHAO Yonggang;JIA Jie;JIANG Lihong(Gansu Dingxi Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Center,Dingxi 743000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省定西水文水资源勘测中心,甘肃定西743000

出　　处：《水利信息化》2025年第2期25-30,共6页Water Resources Informatization

基　　金：甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广项目(23GSLK028)。

摘　　要：气候变化与人类活动对渭河源区径流量产生较大影响,为研究主要影响因素,采用距离倒数法、有序聚类法、累积斜率变化率等方法,对降水径流关系、径流量变异、气候变化与人类活动对径流影响量进行研究。结果表明:降水与径流在年内分配上相关性较好,年际变化相关性较差,1980—2022年间降水量整体呈微弱增加趋势,径流量整体呈不显著的减小趋势;径流量在1993年出现显著变异,径流量减少2.01亿m^(3);气候变化对径流量的影响贡献率为31.6%,人类活动对径流量的影响贡献率为69.4%,人类活动是渭河源区径流量减少的主导因素。研究结果可为区域水资源规划、生态环境治理等提供主要的参考依据。Climate change and human activities have significantly influenced runoffin the source region of the Wei River.To identify the dominant influencing factors and quantify their impacts on runoff,this study employed methods such as the inverse distance weighting method,hierarchical clustering,and cumulative slope change rate analysis.The relationship between precipitation and runoff,runoffvariation,and the respective contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes were systematically examined.The results indicated that precipitation and runoffexhibited strong intra-annual correlation but weak interannual correlation.While precipitation showed a slight increasing trend,runoffpresents an insignificant decreasing trend from 1980 to 2022.A significant runoffvariation occurred in 1993,with a reduction of 201 million m^(3).Climate change accounted for 31.6%of the runoffreduction,whereas human activities contributed 69.4%,making human activities the dominant factor in runoffdecline in the Wei River source region.Thesefindings provide essential references for regional water resource planning and ecological environment management.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 径流量 定量分析 渭河源区 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]