融合冲突可能性和严重性的高速公路分流区极值模型构建及应用  

Construction and Application of an Extreme Value Model Integrating Conflict Probability and Severity in Freeway Diverge Areas

作　　者：漆巍巍[1] 孙子秋 王华鹏 刘岩[2] QI Wei-wei;SUN Zi-qiu;WANG Hua-peng;LIU Yan(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,Guangdong,China;School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150006,Heilongjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510641 [2]东北林业大学土木与交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150006

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2025年第3期139-149,共11页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52072131);广东省自然科学基金项目(2022A1515010123,2023A1515010039);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572023CT21)。

摘　　要：高速公路分流区作为典型的交织区域,容易发生急刹车、急变道等危险驾驶行为,这些行为往往会引发严重的交通冲突。为有效评估高速公路分流区的安全水平,深入探讨了冲突数据的优化问题,提出了一种融合冲突可能性和严重性的高速公路分流区冲突数据集筛选方法及极值建模应用。在冲突可能性方面,以碰撞时间差(Time Difference to Collision,TDTC)为指标,探究了高速公路分流区车辆碰撞的3种典型场景,并计算出冲突事件的时间阈值;在冲突严重性方面,引入Delta-V来筛选出具有潜在人员伤亡后果的冲突事件。将该融合数据集与传统仅考虑冲突可能性的单一数据集进行对比,并通过构建区组极值模型进行安全评估。结果表明:基于融合数据集构建的极值模型,冲突极值的重现水平结果平均绝对误差为0.046,均方根误差为0.058,其估计精度和实际冲突的拟合效果均优于传统数据集;使用极值模型对各分流区的碰撞频次进行了预测分析,发现其评估可靠性和事故预测结果更加符合实际冲突情况,提升了事故预测的可靠性。融合冲突可能性和严重性的高速公路分流区冲突数据集筛选方法可以为高速公路分流区安全评估模型的精度提升提供新的思路。As typical weaving sections,freeway diverge areas often experience hazardous behaviors,such as sudden braking and lane changes,that can easily lead to severe traffic conflicts.To effectively evaluate the safety levels of freeway diverge areas,this study addresses the optimization of conflict data and proposes a conflict dataset screening method as well as an extreme value modeling approach that integrates both conflict probability and severity.For conflict probability,the time difference to collision(TDTC)was utilized as an indicator to analyze three collision scenarios in freeway diverge areas and calculate the time thresholds for conflict events.Regarding conflict severity,delta-V was introduced to filter out conflict events with the potential to result in fatalities.To validate the effectiveness of the proposed fusion conflict data in enhancing the accuracy of safety assessments,the proposed dataset was compared with a traditional dataset that considered only the conflict probability.Block maximum extreme value models were constructed for both datasets to conduct safety assessments.The results show that the extreme value model constructed using the fused dataset achieves extreme value reproducibility,exhibiting a mean absolute error of 0.046 and a root mean square error of 0.058.Its estimation accuracy and fit to actual conflicting data outperform those of traditional datasets.When applied to predict the collision frequency in each diverge areas,the proposed model demonstrates enhanced evaluation reliability and more accurate accident predictions,aligns better with actual conflict situations,and improves prediction reliability.

关 键 词：交通工程 安全评估 极值分析 碰撞时间差 高速公路分流区 

分 类 号：U491.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]