基于马尔科夫链的舰船装备维修预测模型  

Research on ship equipment maintenance prediction model based on Markov chain

作　　者：张慧芳[1] 李基锐 ZHANG Hui-fang;LI Ji-rui(Department of Mathematics,Xinzhou Teachers University,Xinzhou 034000,China;Guangxi New Harbor Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Fangchenggang 538000,China)

机构地区：[1]忻州师范学院数学系,山西忻州034000 [2]广西新港湾工程有限公司,广西防城港538000

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2021年第20期220-222,共3页Ship Science and Technology

摘　　要：舰船上有着大量的装备,想要使这些装备始终保持稳定的运行状态,需要定期对装备进行保养维护和维修,由此产生的维修费用相对较大。为对舰船装备维修费用准确预测,可以运用马尔科夫链,构建相关的预测模型,通过模型预测装备的维修费用。在对马尔科夫链应用的过程中,要明确模型权重的确定方法,在此基础上构建满足舰船装备维修费用预测的马尔科夫模型,通过该模型,预测维修费用。结果表明,马尔科夫模型的预测结果与实际情况完全相符,具有良好的推广使用价值。There are a large number of equipment on ships.In order to keep these equipment in a stable operating state,it is necessary to maintain and repair the equipment on a regular basis.The resulting maintenance costs are relatively large.In order to accurately predict the maintenance cost of ship equipment,the Markov chain can be used to construct a related prediction model,and the maintenance cost of the equipment can be predicted through the model.In the process of applying the Markov chain,it is necessary to clarify the method of determining the weight of the model,and build a Markov model that satisfies the forecast of the maintenance cost of ship equipment on this basis,and predict the maintenance cost through this model.The results show that the prediction results of the Markov model are completely consistent with the actual situation,and it has a good value for popularization.

关 键 词：马尔科夫链 舰船装备 维修 

分 类 号：U667.8[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]