交叉航道内船舶交通流量的混沌特征研究  

Research on chaos characteristics of ship flow in crossing waterway

作　　者：丁振国[1,2] 张树奎 DING Zhen-guo;ZHANG Shu-kui(Jiangsu Maritime Institute Navigation College,Nanjing 211170,China;Tianjin University Education School,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏海事职业技术学院航海技术学院,江苏南京211170 [2]天津大学,天津300072

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2021年第18期49-51,共3页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：江苏高校“青蓝工程”项目(2019);江苏省教育厅基金项目(2017JSJG010)

摘　　要：针对交叉航道管理中需要掌握船舶交通流量的基本特征问题,根据交叉航道的特点,构建交叉航道船舶交通流量时间序列,利用最大Lyapunov指数和递归图分析方法证明了交叉航道船舶交通流量具有混沌特征。递归率(RR)、确定率(DET)和层流率(LAM)三种递归参数的计算结果表明:4个时间片段下船舶交通流量时间序列均表现出混沌特征,但是时间片段2下的时间序列混沌特征最明显;随着时间片段值的增加,系统的混沌特征逐渐减弱。Aiming at the problem of mastering the basic characteristics of ship traffic flow in cross channel management,according to the characteristics of cross channel,the time series of ship traffic flow in cross channel is constructed.It is proved that the ship traffic flow in cross channel has chaotic characteristics by using the maximum Lyapunov exponent and recursive graph analysis method.The calculation results of three recursive parameters:recurrence rate(RR),certainty rate(DET)and layer flow rate(LAM)show that the time series of ship traffic flow show chaotic characteristics under four time segments,but the chaotic characteristics of time series under time segment 2 are the most obvious;With the increase of time segment value,the chaotic characteristics of the system gradually weaken.

关 键 词：交叉航道 船舶交通流量 时间序列 混沌 

分 类 号：U697[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]