中国制造业就业乘数效应及其变动趋势:基于人口普查分县数据的估计  

The Employment Multiplier Effect of China's Manufacturing Industry and Its Change Trend:The Estimates Based on the County-Level Population Census Data

作　　者：程杰[1] CHENG Jie(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100006

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期120-132,共13页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口高质量发展的内涵与实现路径研究”(23&ZD182);国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国人口转变的独特性、经济影响及政策研究”(72141310)。

摘　　要：制造业就业乘数效应是经济学相关领域的前沿基础性议题,就业乘数变化是人口与经济结构和发展阶段转变的重要反映。本文使用中国人口普查分县数据估计了2000—2020年制造业对本地服务业就业的长期乘数效应。研究发现,2000—2020年总体制造业就业乘数为0.59,但呈现出典型的阶段性特征与转折性变化,2000—2010年制造业就业乘数达到0.62,2010—2020年已没有显著的就业乘数效应。第一个十年中,制造业对生活性服务业就业乘数较强,对生产性服务业和公共性服务业就业乘数较弱。第二个十年中,制造业对生活性服务业就业甚至产生了一定的挤出效应。制造业就业乘数效应的转折性变化反映出制造业与服务业之间的关系发生了深刻转变,与中国人口、劳动力市场和经济发展阶段转变具有同步性,也反映出中国经济发展历程的独特性。持续观察制造业就业乘数效应,有助于理解中国人口与经济结构和发展阶段快速转变的过程,更好地把握人口与经济新常态下的区域、产业发展战略与宏观经济政策。The employment multiplier effect of manufacturing industry is a fundamental issue in the field of economics,and the change of employment multipliers is an important reflection of the transformation of population and economic development stages.We use county-level data from the Chinese Population Census to estimate the long-term multiplier effect of manufacturing on local service sector employment from 2000 to 2020.We reveal an overall employment multiplier of 0.59 during this period,with clear phase-specific characteristics and significant turning points.Between 2000 and 2010,the multiplier reached 0.62,but from 2010 to 2020,no significant employment multiplier effect was observed.In the first decade,the multiplier was notably stronger for employment in consumer-oriented services,while it was weaker for producer-oriented and public services.In the second decade,manufacturing even showed a crowding-out effect on employment in consumer services.The turning point of the employment multiplier effect reflects the profound changes in the relationship between the manufacturing industry and the service industry,which is synchronized with the changes in Chinese population,labor markets and economic development stages.Continuously observing the employment multiplier effect is helpful to understand the rapid transformation of China's demographic and economic structures and development stages,and further grasp the regional and industrial development strategies,as well as macroeconomic policies under the new normal of population and economy.

关 键 词：制造业 本地劳动力市场效应 就业乘数 发展阶段转变 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济]