供需平衡视角下未来社区养老设施配置均衡性研究——以西安市城四区为例  

Research on the Balance of Future Community Pension Facilities Allocation from the Perspective of Supply and Demand Balance--Taking the Four Districts of Xi'an as an Example

作　　者：张德帅 陈晓键[1] ZHANG Deshuai;CHEN Xiaojian

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学建筑学院

出　　处：《城市环境设计》2025年第2期118-124,共7页Urban Environment Design

摘　　要：当前我国老龄化程度与经济发展阶段不匹配,整体呈现出“未富先老”的特征,未来社会养老服务需求攀升,养老压力将进一步加剧,高质量的设施供给和配置成为解决这一问题的关键抓手。文章以西安市城四区为例,利用“七普”数据、POI兴趣点、AOI兴趣面等多源数据,运用队列要素法、GIS空间网络分析法等研究方法,分别对2035年的老年人口和社区养老设施服务覆盖率情况进行精准预测,在此基础上结合实地调研走汸以及GeoDa技术对设施配置的均衡性进行分析。结果发现:2035年西安城四区80%以上的街道老龄化率超过14%,成为“老年型Ⅲ型”街道,仅有六成街道能实现社区养老设施服务全覆盖,未来设施配置整体更为均衡,但仍有约20%的街道存在供需不匹配的问题,其中碑林、新城两区的部分街道未来仍存在设施供给缺口,建议在城市更新工作中有针对性地完善补齐。At present,the degree of aging in China does not match the stage of economic development,and the whole shows the characteristics of 1 getting old before getting rich In the future,the demand for social pension services will rise,and the pressure on pension will be further aggravated.High-quality facilities supply and configuration become the key to solve this problem.Taking the four districts of Xi an City as an example,this paper uses multi-source data such as 1 seven census'data,POI interest points,AOI interest surface,etc.,and uses research methods such as cohort factor method and GIS spatial network analysis method to accurately predict the service coverage of the elderly population and community pension facilities in 2035.On this basis,combined with field research visits and GeoDa technology,the balance of facility configuration is analyzed.The results show that in 2035,the aging rate of more than 80% of the streets in the four districts of Xi'an City will exceed 14%,becoming an"old-age type Ⅲ"street,and only 60% of the streets can achieve full coverage of community pension facilities services.In the future,the overall configuration of facilities will be more balanced,but about 20% of the streets still have the problem of mismatch between supply and demand.Among them,some streets in the two districts of Beilin and Xincheng will still have a gap in the supply of facilities in the future.It is recommended to improve and complete the urban renewal work in a targeted manner.

关 键 词：老年人口预测 社区养老设施 服务覆盖率 西安市 均衡性 

分 类 号：TU984.12[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]