基于多维空间公平评价的天津津城养老设施供需均衡研究  

Multi-dimensional Spatial Equity Evaluation and Optimisation of Supply and Demand in Tianjin-Jincheng

作　　者：刘玮琰 李津莉[2] 米晓燕 LIU Weiyan;LI Jinli;MI Xiaoyan

机构地区：[1]北京市城市规划设计研究院 [2]天津大学建筑学院 [3]天津大学城乡规划系

出　　处：《城市环境设计》2025年第2期125-133,共9页Urban Environment Design

摘　　要：实现养老设施供需均衡发展是枳极应对人口快速老龄化的重要举措。如何以需求为导向,精确评估并公平分配养老设施资源成为城市更新与高质量发展时期的重要问题。本研究旨在探索衡量养老设施空间公平性的评价方法,紧密结合天津津城区域老年人口的空间分布特征,综合考虑空间尺度(区域、街道以及300m生活圈网格)、空间类型(单元空间以及连续空间)以及时空变化(需求动态增长)构建多维空间公平评价框架,分析区域内两大类三小类养老设施在分配公平与机会公平的不同表现,作为供需优化决策依据。结果表明,地区与养老设施之间普遍存在不公平现象,主要表现:街道级机构设施在供需匹配上存在边缘区与中心区的明显失衡;社区级设施在不同人口密度下的生活圈尺度网格达标率多数低于50%,存在普遍短缺;面对老年人口增长趋势,供需关系变化存在地域差距。这项研究将帮助城市规划和管理者定位服务空间不公平的区域和具体问题,从而为在不同区域、不同空间层面优化供需关系提供决策支撑。Achieving a balanced development of supply and demand for elderly care facilities is an important measure to actively respond to the rapid aging of the population.How to accurately evaluate and fairly allocate elderly care facility resources based on demand has become an important issue in the period of urban renewal and high-quality development.This study aims to explore evaluation methods for measuring the spatial equity of elderly care facilities,closely combining the spatial distribution characteristics of the elderly population in Jincheng district in Tianjin,and comprehensively considering spatial scales(regions,streets,and 300m living circle grids),spatial types(unit spaces and continuous spaces),and spatiotemporal changes(dynamic growth of demand)to form a multi-dimensional spatial equity evaluation framework.The study analyzes the different manifestations of distribution equity and opportunity equity in the two major categories and three subcategories of elderly care facilities in the district,as a basis for optimizing supply and demand decisions.The results indicate that there is a widespread inequality between areas and elderly care facilities,mainly manifested as a significant imbalance between the supply and demand of institutional facilities in the peripheral and central areas;the grid compliance rate of community elderly care facilities at different population densities is mostly below 50%,indicating a general shortage;faced with an increasing elderly population,there are regional differences in the changes in supply and demand.This study will help urban planners and decision-makers identify areas with inadequate elderly services and their specific problems,providing decision support for optimizing supply and demand relationships at different regional and spatial levels.

关 键 词：空间公平 养老设施 供需匹配 2SFCA 可达性 设施布局 

分 类 号：TU984.12[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]