Wind power correction model designed by the quantitative assessment for the impacts of forecasted wind speed error  

作　　者：Zhi-Qi XU Tong XUE Xin-Yu CHEN Jin FENG Gu-Wei ZHANG Cheng WANG Chun-Hui LU Hai-Shan CHEN Yi-Hui DING 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089,China [2]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [3]China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Beijing 100081,China [4]School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China [5]National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2025年第1期73-81,共9页气候变化研究进展(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42205040,42275009 and 42205170);the Beijing Meteorological Bureau(202201007);Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters open research project(202303 and 202306);China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Youth Research Program(2023CMATCQN05).

摘　　要：The errors in wind power forecast will incur additional cost.It is critical to quantify the relationship between forecasting error in wind speed and power output.Unlike previous works that have rarely considered the speed error,we propose a comprehensive and repeatable wind power forecast correction model that quantitatively assess the impacts of speed error on power error,based on the power curves,speed predictions and distribution of speed forecast error.In this correction model,the power forecast error is obtained by calculating the mathematical expectation.The mathematical expectation of the wind power error is equal to the integral of the wind power error multiplied by its associated probability.Additionally,power forecast error and its probability are constructed as a function of speed forecast error and speed forecast error probability,respectively.To evaluate the model performance,numerical simulations are carried out in Guilin,Xiangyang and Xihai.The results suggest that the model can reduce the biases between observed and forecasted power,with the correlation coefficients increasing by over 15%in Guilin and Xihai.Furthermore,the root mean square error exhibits notable decline,with a reduction of over 35%,from 0.34 to 0.21 MW,from 0.42 to 0.27 MW and from 0.39 to 0.24 MW in the three aforementioned locations,respectively.This study contributes to enhancing the efficiency of wind power generation.

关 键 词：Correction model Wind speed error Wind power error Quantitative computation 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]