Projection for the occurrence dates of heat stress in North China  

作　　者：Lu-Lei BU Kai-Wen ZHANG Zhi-Yan ZUO Deliang CHEN 

机构地区：[1]Shanghai Climate Centre,Shanghai 200030,China [2]Key Laboratory of Cities'Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China [3]Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China [4]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [5]Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [6]Regional Climate Group,Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2025年第1期82-92,共11页气候变化研究进展(英文版)

基　　金：supported by and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42288101 and 42175053);the National Key Research and Development Program(2022YFF0801703);the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality(24YF2738900).

摘　　要：High humidity has been causing extreme heat stress during summer in North China,presenting threats to human life.Although future changes in the intensity and frequency of heat stress have been well recognized,it remains unclear whether the alterations in humidity resulting from increasing greenhouse gases(GHG)will change the occurrence date of heat stress in North China in the future.In this study,we identify three models,including CMCC-CM2-SR5,CMCC-ESM2,and TaiESM1,as the models that most reasonably simulate the dependence of the heat stress on the near-surface specific humidity and the occurrence date of the heat stress in North China.Based on these three models,we show that the increased specific humidity during the warm season,which is caused by rising GHG emissions,will extend the occurrence date of extreme heat stress from only July and August under the SSP1-2.6 scenario to June through September under SSP5-8.5 scenario.A more prevalent occurrence of the extreme heat stress during the warm season under SSP5-8.5 scenario will cause a three-to four-fold increase in the population exposure to the Severe heat stress(wet-bulb temperature>27.5C)compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario.The findings highlight that North China will suffer more prevalent and extreme heat stresses in the future due to the GHG-caused increasing humidity.The results are valuable for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the impacts of the extreme heat stress in North China.

关 键 词：North China Occurrence date PROJECTION Population exposure 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]