Climate warming and wetting poses a severe threat to permafrost engineering stability on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau  

作　　者：Xiao-Ming XU Zhong-Qiong ZHANG Bo-Wen TAI Si-Ru GAO Yu-Zhong YANG Qing-Bai WU 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering,Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China [2]Qinghai-Beiluhe Plateau Frozen Soil Engineering Safety National Observation and Research Station,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2025年第1期93-108,共16页气候变化研究进展(英文版)

基　　金：funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42201160 and 42230512);Independent Project of the State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering(SKLFSE-ZT-202201).

摘　　要：Permafrost underpins engineering in cold regions but is highly sensitive to climate change.The mechanisms linking climate warming,precipitation changes,and permafrost degradation to infrastructure stability remain poorly understood on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP).Here,we present a multi-factor framework to quantify climate impacts on permafrost engineering stability.Our findings reveal a 26.7%decline in permafrost engineering stability from 2015 to 2100,with areas of extremely poor stability expanding by 0.3×10^(4)km^(2)per decade(SSP2-4.5)and 0.6×10^(4)km^(2)per decade(SSP5-8.5).Meanwhile,regions with relatively better stability shrink by 2.0×10^(4)km^(2)and 2.9×10^(4)km^(2)per decade,respectively.These changes driven primarily by a warming and wetting climate pattern.Moreover,engineering stability is maintained in northwestern and interior regions,whereas warmer,ice-saturated areas in the central plateau and southern Qilian Mountains degrade rapidly.Notably,cold permafrost is warming faster than warm permafrost,increasing its vulnerability.These insights provide a critical basis for guiding the future design,construction,and maintenance of permafrost infrastructure,enabling the development of adaptive engineering strategies that account for projected climate change impacts.

关 键 词：Climate warming and wetting PERMAFROST Engineering stability Qinghai-Xizang Plateau 

分 类 号：P642.14[天文地球—工程地质学]