Future climatic risks faced by the Beautiful China Initiative:A perspective for 2035 and 2050  

作　　者：Zhong-Xue MA Hui-Juan CUI Quan-Sheng GE 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Patterns and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2025年第1期141-153,共13页气候变化研究进展(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(2021xjkk0802);the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA23100401);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41877454).

摘　　要：Identifying high-risk areas for climatic disasters and their overlaps during the implementation of the Beautiful China Initiative fills a critical gap in disaster risk research,which often lacks quantitative analyses of the combined risks from multiple disasters.This study evaluates key climatic risks and their overlaps,including heavy storms,heatwaves,and droughts,that may affect the Beautiful China Initiative objectives in 2035 and 2050.The analysis is based on three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP126,SSP370,and SSP585),incorporating vulnerability,disaster risks,and exposure levels.The findings indicate that the severity of climatic risks in China will intensify over time and with climate warming.The western regions will face more severe single-climate risks,while the eastern regions will encounter increasingly severe comprehensive climatic risks.In the western regions,by 2035,the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang is projected to experience heatwave risks exceeding Level 5,while Tibet and Qinghai will face drought risks above Level 6.By 2050,more areas will escalate to Level 6 and 7 risks.In the eastern regions,by 2035,Shandong,Henan,the Pearl River Delta,and the Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei region are expected to face comprehensive risks from heavy storms,heatwaves,and droughts.By 2050,the overlapping high-risk areas will expand,covering the eastern parts of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Furthermore,higher radiative forcing scenarios are associated with increased risks.This study provides critical insights for developing targeted disaster prevention and management systems across different regions of China,offering guidance for the effective implementation of the Beautiful China Initiative.

关 键 词：Comprehensive climatic risk Beautiful China Initiative Heat wave Heavy storm Drought 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]