Regional reallocation of zero-carbon ammonia production in China with carbon neutrality targets  

作　　者：Pian-Pian XIANG Jia-Chen WANG Ke-Jun JIANG Chen-Min HE Wei-Yi JIANG Lin-Qing GUO Yu-Jie JIAO Sha CHEN 

机构地区：[1]Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [2]School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [3]Energy Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Beijing 100083,China [4]Zhejiang Carbon Neutral Innovation Institute&Zhejiang International Cooperation Base for Science and Technology on Carbon Emission Reduction and Monitoring,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310014,China [5]Graduate School of International Studies,Yonsei University,Seoul 03722,South Korea [6]Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100029,China [7]Department of Environmental Science,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2025年第1期199-212,共14页气候变化研究进展(英文版)

基　　金：supported by Enabling and Leveraging Climate Action Towards Netzero Emissions ELEVATE(101056873);National Social Science Foundation of China(22&ZD103);Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(GZC20241769).

摘　　要：Current studies have shown that local feedstocks such as coal,natural gas,and solar resources support regional industrial decarbonization pathways but fail to consider inter-regional cooperation.We employed the IPAC-technology model to develop a sub-national economic technological assessment model for the ammonia industry,incorporating commodity transportation costs to directly connect ammonia production locations.Our analysis indicates that carbon price is crucial for achieving zero carbon emissions across all regions.Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,and Northwest China are likely to become electrolytic hydrogen-based ammonia production centers;Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Shandong are expected to develop nuclear hydrogen-based ammonia production;Southern China,Henan,and Shanxi are set to become hydrogen-based ammonia importer;and the Yangtze River Delta and Southwest China appear to have more varied development opportunities.Notably,while national CO_(2)emissions from ammonia sector decrease overall,emissions in Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,and the Triangle of Central China are projected to increase in the near term.These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry practitioners to develop decarbonization strategies and reallocation policies for China's ammonia industry.

关 键 词：Regional reallocation Ammonia industry Zero-carbon hydrogen IPAC-Technology Interregional linkages 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]