广西甘蔗分生育期干旱特征与致灾危险性评估  

Characteristic Analysis and Hazard Assessment of Sugarcane Drought during Different Growth Stages in Guangxi

作　　者：刘志平 匡昭敏 郭媛 马瑞升 丁美花 吴炫柯 LIU Zhiping;KUANG Zhaomin;GUO Yuan;MA Ruisheng;DING Meihua;WU Xuanke(Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences Institute/Sugarcane Meteorological Service Center,Nanning 530022,Guangxi,China;Liuzhou Meteorological Service,Liuzhou 545003,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所/甘蔗气象服务中心,广西南宁530022 [2]柳州市气象局,广西柳州545003

出　　处：《甘蔗糖业》2025年第2期1-10,I0001,共11页Sugarcane and Canesugar

基　　金：广西气象科研计划项目(桂气科2024M07);中国气象局科技项目(CMAJBGS202322);广西科技重大专项(桂科AA22117007);广西科技重大专项(桂科AB22035069)。

摘　　要：干旱致灾危险性是造成甘蔗干旱灾害风险的重要因素,甘蔗分生育期干旱特征分析及致灾危险性评估对开展干旱风险防范具有重要意义。本文利用1991~2020年广西国家气象观测站逐日数据,基于甘蔗水分亏缺距平指数,结合干旱致灾因子危险性表示方法,构建甘蔗分生育期干旱致灾危险性指数,对广西甘蔗分生育期的干旱发生频率、强度特征以及致灾危险性进行分析和评价。结果表明:甘蔗干旱在各个生育期均有发生且频率、空间分布特征差异性较大,总体上播种出苗期和分蘖期相当均为最低,茎伸长期其次,工艺成熟期发生频率最高。在甘蔗播种出苗期和分蘖期,桂南干旱发生频率最高,桂中和桂北相当;茎伸长期干旱发生频率桂北、桂中和桂南相当;工艺成熟期桂南和桂中相当均为最高、桂北最低。甘蔗干旱强度随生育期推进显著增强,播种出苗期和分蘖期相当均为最低、茎伸长期其次,在工艺成熟期最高,一般为重度和特重度干旱强度。甘蔗各个生育期均有干旱致灾危险,总体致灾危险程度从高到低依次为工艺成熟期、茎伸长期、播种出苗期和分蘖期。工艺成熟期较高且高风险区位于桂南和桂北大部,茎伸长期较高且高风险区位于桂东北大部和桂中局部,播种出苗期较高且高风险区主要为百色市大部,分蘖期广西大部为低风险区。因此,本文研究为提高甘蔗干旱风险预估预警能力提供科学参考。The hazard of drought-induced disasters is identified as a critical factor contributing to sugarcane drought risk,the characterization of drought features and hazard assessment across sugarcane growth stages are emphasized as essential for drought risk prevention.Daily meteorological data from 1991 to 2020,collected by national weather stations in Guangxi,were utilized in this study.A drought-induced hazard index for sugarcane growth stages was constructed based on the sugarcane water deficit anomaly index and a hazard factor assessment framework.Through this index,the frequency,intensity characteristics,and hazard risks of droughts during different growth stages were systematically analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that drought events were observed in all growth stages,with significant spatial and temporal variations.The lowest frequencies were recorded in the sowing-seedling stage and tillering stage,followed by the stem elongation stage,while the highest frequency occurred in the industrial maturity stage.Sowing-seedling and tillering stages:Highest drought frequency in southern Guangxi,moderate in central and northern regions.Stem elongation stage:Similar frequencies across northern,central,and southern Guangxi.Industrial maturity stage:Highest frequency in southern and central Guangxi,lowest in the north.Drought intensity was found to increase progressively with growth stages,the lowest intensity was identified in the sowing-seedling and tillering stages,moderate in the stem elongation stage,and the highest in the industrial maturity stage,predominantly classified as severe to extreme drought.Hazard risks were detected in all growth stages,ranked in descending order as:industrial maturity stage>stem elongation stage>sowing-seedling stage>tillering stage.Industrial maturity stage:Southern and northern Guangxi,Stem elongation stage:Northeastern and partial central Guangxi,Sowing-seedling stage:Most areas of Baise City,Tillering stage:Low-risk across most regions.These findings are expected to provide s

关 键 词：甘蔗 干旱 致灾危险性 水分亏缺指数 分生育期 

分 类 号：S566.1[农业科学—作物学] S162.5