2种作物降水适宜度评价模型在广西甘蔗的适用性比较  

Comparison of the Applicability of Two Crop Precipitation Suitability Evaluation Models for Sugarcane in Guangxi

作　　者：刘武 匡昭敏 张蕾 程俊淇 欧晔 赖嘉良 LIU Wu;KUANG Zhaomin;ZHANG Lei;CHENG Junqi;OU Ye;LAI Jialiang(Laibin Meteorological Bureau,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Laibin 546100,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Sugarcane Meteorological Service Center,Nanning 530022,Guangxi,China;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区来宾市气象局,广西来宾546100 [2]广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所/甘蔗气象服务中心,广西南宁530022 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《甘蔗糖业》2025年第2期11-21,共11页Sugarcane and Canesugar

基　　金：中国气象局科技项目“揭榜挂帅”军令状(CMAJBGS202322)。

摘　　要：针对侯英雨等的模型(模型Ⅰ)和魏瑞江等的模型(模型Ⅱ)2种作物降水适宜度模型在广西甘蔗的适用性进行分析比较,并使用不同降水类型、不同降水时间尺度作为输入参数,以选出相对较好的输入降水类型和降水时间尺度。利用广西91个国家气象观测站1981~2023年逐日气象资料计算甘蔗降水适宜度,使用主产市农业气象观测站的甘蔗观测资料进行验证,选取适宜的模型和降水类型分析广西甘蔗降水适宜度时空分布特征。结果表明:对比输入10、30日时间尺度降水量,模型Ⅱ适宜度与茎伸长的平均相关系数比模型Ⅰ分别高0.06、0.12,而模型Ⅰ在超出作物需水量上、下限时出现适宜度为0的跳跃现象,模型Ⅱ相对优于模型Ⅰ;2种模型的输入降水类型的相关度从高到低均为有效降水>观测降水>可利用降水;2种模型的输入降水时间尺度的相关度从高到低排序均为30日>10日;模型Ⅱ与茎伸长的相关性显著且用于作物适宜度的时空分析时差异明显,可应用于作物适宜度和长势分析。The study aims to analyze and compare the applicability of two common crop precipitation suitability models for sugarcane in Guangxi.These two models are the model developed by Hou Yingyu et al.(Model Ⅰ)and the model developed by Wei Ruijiang et al.(Model Ⅱ).The goal is to determine the relatively better precipitation suitability model and to select the better input precipitation type and time scale by using different precipitation types and time scales as input parameters.Daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2023 from 91 national meteorological observation stations in Guangxi were used to calculate the precipitation suitability for sugarcane,and sugarcane observation data from agricultural meteorological observation stations in major production cities were used for validation.The appropriate model and precipitation type were selected to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of sugarcane precipitation suitability in Guangxi.The results show that compared to inputting precipitation on 10-day and 30-day time scales,the average correlation coefficient between the suitability of Model Ⅱ and stem elongation is 0.06 and 0.12 higher than that of Model Ⅰ,respectively.Model Ⅰ exhibits a jump phenomenon where the suitability drops to 0 when the crop water demand exceeds the upper or lower limits,making Model Ⅱ relatively superior to Model Ⅰ.For both models,the correlation of input precipitation types from high to low is effective precipitation>observed precipitation>utilizable precipitation.The correlation of input precipitation time scales for both models from high to low is 30-day>10-day.The correlation between Model Ⅱ and stem elongation is significant,and the differences are noticeable when used for spatial and temporal analysis of crop suitability,making it applicable for crop suitability and growth analysis.

关 键 词：降水适宜度 模型 甘蔗 评价 比较 

分 类 号：S566.1[农业科学—作物学] S162.5