广西甘蔗生产的气候风险评估  

Climate Risk Assessment of Sugarcane Production in Guangxi

作　　者：李莉 匡昭敏 欧钊荣 马瑞升 陈冬宇 LI Li;KUANG Zhaomin;OU Zhaorong;MA Ruisheng;CHEN Dongyu(Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Sugarcane Meteorological Service Center,Nanning 530022,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所/甘蔗气象服务中心,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《甘蔗糖业》2025年第2期22-31,共10页Sugarcane and Canesugar

基　　金：中国气象局科技项目“揭榜挂帅”“基于天空地一体化融合数据的精细化甘蔗农情灾情评估预警和产量预报技术与数算一体化平台研发”(CMAJBGS202322);广西科技重大专项“高效低损甘蔗机械化收获关键技术集成应用与示范”(桂科AA22117007)。

摘　　要：为科学系统评估广西甘蔗全生育期的气候风险现状及未来变化趋势,在全球气候变化加剧的背景下,应对气候变化对甘蔗产量和品质的潜在影响,研究采用1961~2022年的长序列气象数据、气象灾害历史资料和甘蔗种植数据,通过相关分析、主成分分析和层次分析法,构建了甘蔗生产气候风险评估指标体系和模型。结果表明,广西甘蔗气候风险度呈现东高西低的趋势,东部和北部地区因干旱频率较高而风险度较高,而桂西、桂中和桂南沿海地区因降水和温度条件较好,风险度较低。预测至2030年,桂东北地区风险度将显著增加,而桂西地区风险度最低区域有所扩大,未来气候条件将加剧甘蔗生产在区域间的不平衡性。研究结论指出,针对高风险区域,应加强气象灾害监测与预警,优化甘蔗种植布局,推广抗旱抗寒品种,并完善农业基础设施建设,以降低气象灾害对甘蔗生产的不利影响,保障广西甘蔗产业的可持续发展。This study aims to scientifically and systematically evaluate the current climate risks and future trends throughout the entire growth period of sugarcane in Guangxi.Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change,it addresses the potential impacts on sugarcane yield and quality.Utilizing long-term meteorological data(1961~2022),historical meteorological disaster records,and sugarcane cultivation data,this research constructs a climate risk assessment index system and model through correlation analysis,principal component analysis,and the analytic hierarchy process.The results indicate that sugarcane climate risk in Guangxi decreases from east to west.The eastern and northern regions exhibit higher risk levels due to frequent droughts,while the western,central,and southern coastal areas benefit from favorable precipitation and temperature conditions,resulting in lower risks.Projections suggest that by 2030,the risk in northeastern Guangxi will increase significantly,whereas the lowest-risk zones in the west will expand.Future climatic conditions are expected to exacerbate regional disparities in sugarcane production.The study concludes that high-risk areas require enhanced meteorological monitoring and early warning systems,optimized planting strategies,promotion of drought-and cold-resistant cultivars,and improved agricultural infrastructure.These measures are crucial to mitigate adverse meteorological impacts and ensure the sustainable development of Guangxi’s sugarcane industry.

关 键 词：甘蔗 气候风险 风险评估 气候变化 

分 类 号：S566.1[农业科学—作物学] S162.5