全球木质林产品贸易格局演变及动力机制研究——基于动态指数随机图模型  

The Evolution and Dynamic Mechanism of the Global Trade Pattern of Wood Forest Products——Based on Temporary Exponential Random Graph Model

作　　者：江帆 刘勇[1,2] 李兰英 陈紫伊[2] JIANG Fan;LIU Yong;LI Lanying;CHEN Ziyi(a.Institute of Ecological Civilization,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China;College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学生态文明研究院,杭州311300 [2]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2025年第2期182-193,共12页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目(2022JZDZ009);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003179);浙江省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心课题(22WH70066-8Z)。

摘　　要：基于2003-2021年114个国家(地区)的木质林产品贸易网络,采用社会网络方法分析其演变特征,建立动态指数随机图模型(TERGM)探究木质林产品贸易网络演变的动力机制以及时间效应对模型解释效力的影响。结果表明:木质林产品贸易网络局部成团性明显、具有“小世界”特征;中国木质林产品贸易的辐射、敛聚能力不断增强,成长为该领域中具有重要影响力的国家;在TERGM中,经济自由度、自然资本以及经济发展水平对该网络的形成均有显著正向影响;双边距离对该网络的形成存在显著负向影响,而接壤、相近的语言、存在历史殖民联系和贸易联系等都有利于形成木质林产品贸易关系。⑴Background——The global trade in wood forest products is growing rapidly.Meanwhile,the risks and challenges such as trade protectionism and anti-globalization still exist,and the global trade pattern of wood forest products may accelerate its evolution under this influence.This paper constructs the temporary exponential random graph model(TERGM)to explore the evolution and dynamic mechanism of the global trade pattern of wood forest products,which is helpful to understand the characteristics and influencing factors of the evolution of the global trade pattern of wood forest products,and provide ideas and directions for further developing the production and trade of wood forest products in China.⑵Methods——Based on the trade data of wood forest products of 114 countries(regions)from 2003 to 2021,the dynamic change of trade network was deduced by using social network method.The trade relationship of wood forest products at each node from 2003 to 2018 was taken as the explained variable,and the structural effect,property effect,exogenous effect and time effect were taken as the explanatory variables to construct the TERGM model,and explore the dynamic mechanism of the formation of wood forest products trade network.In addition,the time effect was sequentially included in the model to verify its impact on the explanatory power of the model.⑶Results——The global trade in wood forest products shows the characteristics of local agglomeration and“small world”.Among them,the radiation and agglomeration ability of China’s wood forest products trade has been enhanced,and it has grown into an important country in this field,but its connectivity potential has shown a weakening trend.Overall,the global trade competition in wood forest products is becoming more and more intense,the resulting network has a reshaping trend.The economic freedom,natural capital and economic development level have significant positive effects on the formation of the trade network.Bilateral distance has a significant negative ef

关 键 词：木质林产品贸易 社会网络方法 动态指数随机图模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]