中国碳排放影响因素分析与碳中和路径探寻  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions and Exploration of Carbon Neutrality Path in China

作　　者：周云柯 吴建国 ZHOU Yunke;WU Jianguo(College of Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Qingju Technology Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100069,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学工学院,北京100871 [2]青矩技术股份有限公司,北京100069

出　　处：《中国国土资源经济》2025年第4期12-24,共13页Natural Resource Economics of China

基　　金：重点实验室开放项目“油气资源与探测国家重点实验室”(PRP/open-2109)。

摘　　要：文章借助Kaya恒等式,构建了3层LMDI(Logarithmic Mean weight Divisia Index method)分解模型,研究产业结构、人口、GDP、能源强度等影响因素对中国碳排放总量的影响,旨在探索实现碳中和的有效路径。研究发现,人均GDP的正效应与能源消费结构的负效应对碳排放影响因素贡献最大。在此基础上,从政策、技术发展、财政预算三方面提出中国碳中和实施路径建议,并提出2021—2060年各阶段建议重点研发的低碳技术。With the help of Kaya identity,this paper constructs a three-layer LMDI(Logarithmic Mean weight Divisia Index method)decomposition model to study the impact of industrial structure,population,GDP,energy intensity and other influencing factors on total carbon emissions in China,aiming to explore an effective path to achieve carbon neutrality.It is found that the positive effect of GDP per capita and the negative effect of energy consumption structure contribute the most to the influencing factors of carbon emissions.On these basis,this paper puts forward suggestions on the implementation path of carbon neutrality in China from three aspects,including policy,technology development and fiscal budget,and puts forward the low-carbon technologies that are recommended for key research and developement in each stage from 2021 to 2060.

关 键 词：碳排放 碳排放因子 指数分解 影响因素 实施路径 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F205