基于动态MAUT的天然气藏储量升级潜力评价研究——以四川盆地海相碳酸盐岩气藏为例  

Evaluation of Reserve Upgrade Potential of Natural Gas Reservoirs Based on Dynamic MAUT--A Case Study of Marine Carbonate Gas Reservoirs in Sichuan Basin

作　　者：战薇芸 吴雪峰 王众[2] 宋荣彩[3] 文发杨 ZHAN Weiyun;WU Xuefeng;WANG Zhong;SONG Rongcai;WEN Fayang(Exploration and Development Research Institute,Petro China Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu Sichuan 610041,China;College of Management Science,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu Sichuan 610059,China;College of Energy,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu Sichuan 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院,四川成都610041 [2]成都理工大学管理科学学院,四川成都610059 [3]成都理工大学能源学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《中国国土资源经济》2025年第4期61-69,共9页Natural Resource Economics of China

基　　金：中国石油西南油气田公司科学研究与技术项目“四川盆地海相碳酸盐岩储量升级评价研究及应用”(20210301-25)。

摘　　要：客观评估天然气藏升级潜力、有效分配勘探资金以及科学制定勘探决策部署,对于保障国家能源安全、助力“双碳”目标实现十分重要且迫切。文章针对已有研究中评价因素考虑不全面、评价方法对不确定性考虑不足、涉及四川盆地气藏尚属空白的问题,以四川盆地海相碳酸盐岩气藏为切入点,凝练升级难度(易不易升级)、升级率(能升级多少)、升级价值(获得多少收益)三个属性,在分维度评价的基础上运用多属性效用理论(MAUT)作为决策(排序)准则,将专家赋权与随机赋权相结合,构建了动态MAUT评价优选模型,并通过该模型对四川盆地40个海相气藏的升级潜力进行综合评价和排序,评价出升级潜力较大的气藏3个,评价结果与勘探实际情况较吻合。It is essential and urgent to objectively evaluate the reserve upgrade potential of natural gas reservoirs,effectively allocate exploration funds,and make scientific exploration decisions and deployment for ensuring national energy security and helping to achieve the goals of"dual carbon".In view of the problems in the existing research that the evaluation factors are not fully considered,the evaluation methods are not enough to consider the uncertainty,and the gas reservoirs in Sichuan Basin are still blank,the paper takes the marine carbonate gas reservoirs in Sichuan Basin as the entry point,and condenses the three attributes of the difficulty of upgrading(easy to upgrade),upgrading rate(how much can be upgraded),and upgrading value(how much revenue can be obtained).On the basis of the sub-dimensional evaluation,and adopted the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory(MAUT)as the decision-making(ranking)criterion,the dynamic MAUT evaluation optimization model is constructed by combining the expert empowerment and random empowerment,and the reserve upgrade potential of 40 marine gas reservoirs in Sichuan Basin is comprehensively evaluated and ranked by this model.Three gas reservoirs with high potential for upgrading are identified,and the evaluation results are more in line with the actual situation of exploration.

关 键 词：四川盆地 天然气 储量升级 影响因素 动态MAUT MACBETH 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] TE1[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]