青藏高原观测对2020年长江中下游地区梅雨降水过程预报的影响  

Impact of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau observations on the forecasting of Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020

作　　者：庄照荣[1,2,3] 田伟红[1,2,3] 陈雨潇 陈静[1,2,3] ZHUANG Zhaorong;TIAN Weihong;CHEN Yuxiao;CHEN Jing(CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology(LaSW),Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;CMA Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction,Beijing 100081,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室,北京100081 [3]中国气象局地球系统数值预报重点开放实验室,北京100081 [4]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2025年第2期217-228,共12页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000902;2022YFC3004002);国家自然科学基金项目(42375154)。

摘　　要：青藏高原对我国气候、天气有重要的影响,青藏高原地区的观测分布相对于我国东部区域虽然密度稀疏,但对我国东部长江中下游地区预报有一定的影响。本文利用CMA-MESO快速更新循环系统对2020年7月上旬长江中下游地区的梅雨天气过程进行模拟,研究青藏高原地区观测资料的缺失对下游地区天气系统预报的影响。试验结果表明,青藏高原地区的观测资料缺失明显影响长江中下游地区24~72h的地面2m温度和10m风场预报质量,对前3d的降水预报也有显著负贡献。目标区观测资料影响估计也表明,青藏高原观测资料的影响主要在长江中下游地区,24~72h的预报信号方差在长江中下游地区最大。因此,改进长江中下游地区预报质量也需要考虑青藏高原的观测资料影响。另外,针对我国东部区域进行高分辨率模式模拟时,往往研究区域范围不包括青藏高原地区,但研究区域外的观测和预报信息时空传播对预报的影响也不可忽视。The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau plays a significant role in influencing China's climate and weather patterns.However,the regional observation density is considerably lower than that of eastern China.Despite this sparsity,observations from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau can significantly affect weather forecasts for downstream areas,such as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.With advancements in the resolution of regional models,many operational forecasting systems in eastern China exclude the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,leaving the impact of its observations on downstream forecast quality unclear.This study uses the CMA-MESO rapid updating cycle system to simulate the Meiyu weather event that occurred in early July 2020 in the middle and lower Yangtze River region.The study evaluates the influence of missing observations from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the accuracy of forecasts for downstream weather systems.Results indicate that the absence of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau observations significantly degrades the 24-72-hour forecasts for surface 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind fields in the middle and lower Yangtze River.It also negatively affects precipitation forecasts during the first three days.Analysis of the observational impact highlights that Qinghai-Xizang Plateau observations primarily influence the middle and lower Yangtze River region,with the largest variance in the 24-72-hour forecast signal occurring in these areas.Thus,improving forecast quality in the middle and lower Yangtze River requires accounting for upstream observational data from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the spatiotemporal propagation of this.To enhance severe weather forecasting in eastern China,it is crucial to not only increase local observation infrastructure,such as radars and weather stations,but also to deploy additional radars and satellites in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Incorporating three-dimensional observational profiles,such as soundings,and deploying mobile observation stations in regions prone to sudden localized h

关 键 词：青藏高原观测 梅雨期降水 三维变分 CMA-MESO 快速更新分析预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]