极端暴雨过程对海河流域暴雨分布特征的影响  

Influence of extreme rainstorms on the spatial distribution characteristics of rainfall in China s Haihe River basin

作　　者：程宸 房小怡 张硕 于瀛 杨舒楠 李雁[3] 刘家宏[4] 梅超[4] CHENG Chen;FANG Xiaoyi;ZHANG Shuo;YU Ying;YANG Shunan;LI Yan;LIU Jiahong;MEI Chao(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081,China;CMA Institute for Development and Programme Design,Beijing 100081,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室,北京100081 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]中国气象局气象发展与规划院,北京100081 [4]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2025年第2期289-299,共11页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3090600);湖北省自然科学基金联合基金项目(2023AFD106);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2023Z016)。

摘　　要：为研究极端暴雨过程对海河流域暴雨空间分布特征的影响,利用流域内252个国家气象站1961—2023年日降雨量数据划分了暴雨过程,计算总暴雨日数(I_(day))、累积降雨量(I_(pre))、平均日降雨量(I_(24pre))和最长持续天数(I_(dur))4个暴雨特征变量,分析了流域历史时间段和“23.7”“63.8”两次极端暴雨过程的空间分布特征,进而采用K均值聚类分析了两次极端暴雨过程对流域暴雨空间分布特征的影响,定量评估了影响贡献率。结果显示,海河流域在太行山前西南至东北一线的气象站历史时间段I_(day)相对少,但I_(pre)更多,暴雨过程极端性更强。“23.7”暴雨过程覆盖范围比“63.8”过程大,超过50%的气象站I_(day)≥3 d,I_(dur)最长为6 d,单站最大I_(pre)和I_(24pre)分别为1009.7 mm和452.7 mm·d^(-1)。若无两次极端暴雨过程,海河流域暴雨分布特征将更均质化,由“山区-山前平原-平原”分布变为“山区-山前及平原”分布。单次极端暴雨过程对流域暴雨特征变量的贡献率可超过10%。Understanding the spatial distribution of rainfall within a river basin is fundamental for effective flood control and drainage management.Using the Haihe River basin in China as a case study,this research examines the impact of how extreme rainfall events on the spatial distribution of precipitation,which is critical for enhancing flood mitigation efforts and ensuring regional safety.To achieve this,daily rainfall data from 252 national meteorological stations in the Haihe River basin from 1961 to 2023 were collected and processed to identify individual rainfall events.Four key rainfall characteristics were selected for quantitative analysis:total rainfall days(I_(day)),cumulative rainfall(I_(pre)),average daily rainfall(I_(24pre)),and longest continuous rainfall duration(I_(dur)).These variables capture essential aspects of precipitation,including intensity,duration,and total accumulation.First,a comprehensive analysis of historical rainfall patterns in the Haihe River basin was conducted to establish a long-term spatial distribution baseline.Special focus was then placed on two highly representative extreme rainfall events,the“23.7”and“63.8”rainstorms,to examine their distinct spatial distribution characteristics.To further quantify their influence on overall rainfall distribution,a K-means clustering analysis was employed to explore internal data relationships.Finally,by comparing changes in rainfall characteristic after removing individual extreme rainfall events,the contribution of these events to the basin-wide spatial distribution of precipitation was quantitatively assessed.The results reveal that along a southwest-to-northeast axis in front of the Taihang Mountains,the historical dataset shows that although meteorological stations in this region experience relatively fewer total rainfall days(I_(day)),the cumulative rainfall(I_(pre))is significantly high,indicating a concentration of extreme precipitation events.Comparing the two extreme rainstorms,the“23.7”event had a notably larger spatial

关 键 词：极端暴雨过程 海河流域 空间分布特征 聚类分析 贡献率 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]