伊犁河谷景观生态风险评价与时空演变分析  

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Spatial and Temporal Evolution in Ili River Valley

作　　者：宋长赢 孙浩捷[1] 徐雪婷 赵鹏凯 SONG Changying;SUN Haojie;XU Xueting;ZHAO Pengkai(College of Geographical Sciences and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《林业调查规划》2025年第2期92-101,共10页Forest Inventory and Planning

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目(2023BYJ033).

摘　　要：基于2000、2010、2020年伊犁河谷土地利用数据,采用Markov-PLUS多情景模拟方法,研究伊犁河谷土地利用转变形式下的景观生态风险变化。结果表明,2000—2010年伊犁河谷地类转化较2010—2020、2020—2030年间更加剧烈,生态风险重心迁移幅度更大。2000—2010年间水域向未利用地转变,面积缩减严重,2000—2030年间耕地、建设用地由草地转化而来,面积持续增长。伊犁河谷景观生态风险分布以低、较低、中等风险为主,整体生态环境较好,但东、中、南部高海拔山区生态环境脆弱,呈现向较高风险区转化的趋势。景观生态风险空间相关性与空间集聚程度不断增强。Based on the land use data of the Ili River Valley in 2000,2010,and 2020,the Markov-PLUS multi-scenario simulation method was used to study the changes of landscape ecological risk under the transformation of land use in the Ili River Valley.The results showed that the land type transformation in the Ili River Valley from 2000 to 2010 was more severe than that from 2010 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2030,and the shift of ecological risk center was greater.From 2000 to 2010,the water area was transformed into unused land,and the area was seriously reduced.From 2000 to 2030,the cultivated land and construction land were transformed from grassland,and the area continued to grow.The landscape ecological risk distribution in the Ili River Valley was mainly low,slightly low and medium risk,and the overall ecological environment was good,but the ecological environment in the eastern,middle and southern high-altitude mountain areas was fragile,showing a trend of deterioration to the higher risk area.The spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration degree of landscape ecological risk were increasing.

关 键 词：土地利用 景观生态风险 Markov-PLUS多情景模拟 空间自相关 空间集聚 伊犁河谷 

分 类 号：S718.557[农业科学—林学] Q149[生物学—生态学] X820.4[生物学—普通生物学]