基于STIRPAT模型的某独立岛屿建筑领域碳排放预测研究  

Study on carbon emission prediction in the construction field of an independent island based on STIRPAT model

作　　者：陈雪淇 CHEN Xueqi

机构地区：[1]福建省建筑科学研究院有限责任公司、福建省绿色建筑技术重点实验室,福建福州350108

出　　处：《福建建设科技》2025年第2期100-102,116,共4页Fujian Construction Science & Technology

基　　金：厦门市建设局建设科技项目资助《厦门市公共建筑碳交易机制研究》(XJK2023-1-15)。

摘　　要：本文以某独立岛屿作为研究对象,测算建筑领域碳排放量,分析影响因素,进而构建STIRPAT碳排放预测模型。结合情景预测分析方法,推算不同情景下该独立岛屿建筑领域碳排放量的发展趋势。结果表明:基准情景下,该岛屿建筑领域碳排放在2030年前均呈现向上增长趋势,尚未达到峰值。为实现2030年前碳达峰目标,设置了节能情景,2029年该岛屿建筑领域碳排放达到峰值,较基准情景需减少2424.84tCO_(2)。本文通过对该独立岛屿建筑领域碳排放预测研究,为建筑领域碳达峰的实施路径提供理论与数据支持。This paper takes the building field of an independent island as the research object,the carbon emission is calculated and the influencing factors are analyzed,and then the STIRPAT carbon emission prediction model is constructed.On this basis,through scenario prediction analysis method,the development trend of carbon emissions in the construction field of this independent island under different scenarios is calculated.The results show that the carbon emissions of the island s construction sector have not reached the peak in 2030 under the baseline scenario.In order to achieve the goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030,an energy-saving scenario was set up.In 2029,the carbon emission of the island s construction sector reached its peak,which was 2424.84tCO_(2) less than the baseline scenario.In order to achieve the"3060 goal",we can reduce the carbon emission of buildings by improving the energy efficiency standards of new buildings,transforming existing buildings and popularizing the application of renewable energy.This paper provides theoretical and data support for the implementation path of the carbon peak in the independent island.

关 键 词：建筑领域 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 情景分析 

分 类 号：TU201.5[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]