引江济淮工程安徽省受水区降水径流变化特征研究  

Characteristics of Precipitation and Runoff Changes in the Water-Receiving Area of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project in Anhui Province

作　　者：黄军 徐国敏 HUANG Jun;XU Guomin(Anhui Survey&Design Institute of Water Resources&Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230088,China;Anhui Dayu Water Conservancy Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230088,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省水利水电勘测设计研究总院股份有限公司,安徽合肥230088 [2]安徽省大禹水利工程科技有限公司,安徽合肥230088

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2025年第4期15-25,67,共12页Water Resources Development and Management

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US14)。

摘　　要：本文采用M-K趋势检验、小波周期分析等方法分析了引江济淮工程受水区范围内研究时段(1956—2016年)、比较期(2001—2016年)与基准期(1956—2000年)的降水量、天然径流量统计特性差异和变化特征。结果表明,比较期天然径流量平均值较研究时段上升率达到了18.5%,较基准期上升15.6%,上升显著;受水区范围内径流变化总体呈现上升趋势,但呈现不均衡特征。研究结果可为引江济淮工程后续的调度运行提供参考。This paper employs the Mann-Kendall trend test,wavelet period analysis,and other methods to analyze the statistical characteristics and variation patterns of precipitation and natural runoff in the water-receiving area of the Yangtzeto-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project during the study period(1956—2016),the comparison period(2001—2016),and the baseline period(1956—2000).The results indicate that the average natural runoff during the comparison period increased by 18.5%compared to the study period and by 15.6%compared to the baseline period,showing a significant upward trend.The overall runoff variation in the water-receiving area exhibits an increasing trend but with noticeable spatial and temporal unevenness.These findings provide a valuable reference for the future scheduling and operation of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe River Water Diversion Project.

关 键 词：降水变化 径流变化 引江济淮工程 趋势分析 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]