SCS-CN与GIS耦合模型预报预警小流域临界雨量  

Prediction and Early Warning of Critical Rainfall in Small Watersheds Using the Coupled SCS-CN and GIS Model

作　　者：黄晓林 HUANG Xiaolin(Hechi Hydrology Center,Hydrology Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Hechi 547000,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区水文中心河池水文中心,广西河池547000

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2025年第4期79-84,61,共7页Water Resources Development and Management

摘　　要：近年来,极端降雨事件频发,暴雨空间不确定性造成洪涝灾害空间不确定性。为精准识别无资料地区洪涝灾害风险,提前预警,开展小流域临界雨量模型研究十分必要。本文以河池市578个洪涝区临界雨量阈值为基础,借助变异函数,构建了SCS-CN与GIS耦合模型,探讨了河池市临界雨量阈值空间相关性和依赖性,丰富了“四预”预报预警数字化手段。In recent years,the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events has led to significant spatial uncertainty in flood disasters due to the unpredictable distribution of heavy rainfall.To accurately assess flood risk in data-scarce regions and enable early warning,it is crucial to develop critical rainfall models for small watersheds.This paper,based on the critical rainfall thresholds of 578 flood-prone areas in Hechi City,employs a variogram function to construct a coupled SCSCN and GIS model.The study explores the spatial correlation and dependence of critical rainfall thresholds in Hechi City,enhancing the digital forecasting and early warning capabilities within the“four preventions”framework.

关 键 词：降雨 预警 SCS-CN与GIS耦合模型 临界雨量 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]