夜光遥感视角下长江中游城市群规模与发展动态研究  

Research on the Scale and Development Dynamics of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River from the Perspective of Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

作　　者：王楠 孙瑛莹 官云兰[1,2,4] 王毓乾 李子轩[1,2] WANG Nan;SUN Yingying;GUAN Yunlan;WANG Yuqian;LI Zixuan(School of Surveying and Geoinformation Engineering,East China University of Technology,330013,Nanchang,PRC;Key Laboratory of Mine Environmental Monitoring and Improving around Poyang Lake of Ministry of Natural Resources,East China University of Technology,330013,Nanchang,PRC;Jiangxi Provincial Transportation Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,330209,Nanchang,PRC;Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecological Process and Information,330013,Nanchang,PRC;College of Computer Science and Technology,Yibin University,644000,Yibin,Sichuan,PRC)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学测绘与空间信息工程学院,南昌330013 [2]东华理工大学自然资源部环鄱阳湖区域矿山环境监测与治理重点实验室,南昌330013 [3]江西省交通设计研究院有限责任公司,南昌330209 [4]江西省流域生态过程与信息重点实验室,南昌330013 [5]宜宾学院计算机科学与技术学院,四川宜宾644000

出　　处：《江西科学》2025年第2期341-348,共8页Jiangxi Science

基　　金：自然资源部环鄱阳湖区域矿山环境监测与治理重点实验室资助项目(MEMI-2023-15);宜宾学院科研启动项目(2023QH14)。

摘　　要：长江中游城市群作为中部崛起战略的重要支撑,研究其时空变化格局对于促进区域经济发展具有重要意义。利用DMSP/OLS和NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据,采用首位度、位序-规模法则、标准差椭圆等分析方法和城市扩张指标,从规模、结构、发展轨迹3个方面揭示2000—2020年长江中游城市群的规模特征与发展动态。同时,运用灰色预测模型对2025—2030年长江中游城市群建成区的扩张趋势进行预测。结果表明,自21世纪以来,长江中游城市群持续扩张,经济发展围绕武汉、长沙和南昌三大省会城市,城市规模相对集中。扩张幅度逐渐平稳,城市规模从集中转向均衡发展。空间上,城市群扩张呈现“西北-东南”格局,重心逐步向东南移动,城市发展动态体现为“扩张-收缩-扩张”。灰色模型平均相对误差为3.06%,表明具有较高精度,预测结果显示长江中游城市群在未来中长期依旧呈扩张趋势,但速度较慢。As a key pillar of the Central China Rise Strategy,the spatiotemporal changes of the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River(UMRYR)hold significant importance for promoting regional economic development.Using DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light data,this study utilized methods such as primacy index,rank-size rule,standard deviational ellipse,and urban expansion indicators to reveal the scale characteristics and development dynamics of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2000 to 2020,focusing on scale,structure,and development trajectory.Additionally,the study employed a gray prediction model to predict the expansion trend of built-up areas in the region from 2025 to 2030.The results show that over the past two decades,the UMRYR has continuously expanded,with economic activities primarily centered around the three provincial capitals:Wuhan,Changsha and Nanchang,and with relatively concentrated urban scales.The rate of expansion has gradually stabilized,with urban scales transitioning from concentration towards more balanced development.Spatially,the expansion of the UMRYR follows a“northwest-southeast”direction,with its center of gravity moving progressively southeastward.The dynamics of urban development exhibit a pattern of“expansion-contraction-expansion”.The gray prediction model displays high accuracy,with an average relative error of 3.06%.The forecasts indicate that the UMRYR will continue to expand in the medium to long term,but at a slower pace.

关 键 词：夜间灯光数据 长江中游城市群 城市建成区 城市发育特征 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]