2024年5月3—5日九江暴雨过程成因及预报误差分析  

Analysis of the Causes and Forecast Errors of the Rainstorm Event in Jiujiang from May 3-5,2024

作　　者：胡皓 杨超 梅婷 HU Hao;YANG Chao;MEI Ting(The Meteorological Observatory of Gongqingcheng,332020,Gongqingcheng,Jiangxi,PRC;The Meteorological Observatory of Jiujiang,332001,Jiujiang,Jiangxi,PRC)

机构地区：[1]共青城市气象局,江西共青城332020 [2]九江市气象台,江西九江332001

出　　处：《江西科学》2025年第2期349-355,共7页Jiangxi Science

基　　金：江西省防灾减灾工程技术研究中心专项项目(JX2023M06)。

摘　　要：利用常规观测、Micaps实况填图分析、WRF模式模拟分析、多家数值模式对比及ERA5(第五代欧洲中心再分析数据)数据分析等方法,研究2024年5月3—5日九江市暴雨过程的实况特征、成因以及预报偏差,为赣北强降水订正预报及预报检验提供参考。结果表明,此次过程为锋面降水叠加局地对流性降水,有着突发性强、致灾性高的特点,暴雨和大暴雨落区范围特征性明显,是在有利的暴雨系统(南支槽、低涡切变、锋面)配置下,配合地形产生持续的动力抬升、不间断地西南急流水汽输送、底层冷锋过境影响以及不稳定层结的共同作用下形成。全球多模式对比来看在降水前夕850 hPa暖切变线预报位置比较一致,但模式预报西南风速均较弱,整体雨带落区较实况有预报偏差,累计预报降水量偏小。Using conventional observation,Micaps live mapping analysis,WRF model simulation analysis,comparison of multiple numerical models,and ERA5(the fifth generation of European Center reanalysis data)data analysis,this paper studied the real characteristics,causes,and forecast bias of the rainstorm process in Jiujiang city from May 3-5,2024.The findings aim to provide a reference for correcting and verifying forecasts of rainstorm in northern Jiangxi.Results indicate that the event was characterized by overlapping frontal precipitation and local convective precipitation,exhibiting abruptness and high disaster potential.The distribution of heavy and torrential rainfall areas was distinct,driven by favorable configuration of the rainstorm system(southern branch,vortex shear,front),combined with continuous dynamic uplift,uninterrupted southwest jet water vapor transport,the influence of the bottom cold front transit,and unstable stratification.A comparison of global multi-model outputs revealed consistent forecasts for the 850 hPa warm shear line location prior to precipitation.However,the models predicted weaker southwest wind speeds,and the overall rain belt area was predicted to deviate from the actual forecast,leading to an underestimate of the cumulative precipitation forecast.

关 键 词：暴雨 锋面降水 预报偏差 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]