基于LEAP模型的安徽省H市碳排放及低碳发展路径研究  

Study on carbon emission and low-carbon development path in H City of Anhui Province based on LEAP model

作　　者：杨满意 吴蕾[1,2] 朱魏炜 岳正波 王晓辉[2] 钱靖 YANG Manyi;WU Lei;ZHU Weiwei;YUE Zhengbo;WANG Xiaohui;QIAN Jing(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei Anhui 230009;Anhui Provincial Academy of Eco-Environmental Science Research,Hefei Anhui 230061)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]安徽省生态环境科学研究院,安徽合肥230061

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2025年第4期153-160,I0008,共9页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2023YFC3709404);安徽省生态文明研究院开放课题(No.AHSWY-2022-03)。

摘　　要：采用LEAP模型对安徽省H市2021—2050年的能源消费量和碳排放量进行预测。根据减排措施实施力度,设置基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景,分析措施的减排贡献率,从而为H市探索低碳发展路径。结果表明:3个情景下,H市分别于2031、2029、2021年碳达峰;基准情景和低碳情景难以实现“双碳”目标,只有强化低碳情景才有望实现“双碳”目标。就减排贡献率而言,电力清洁化、电气化和能耗强度降低对H市碳减排起到关键作用,减排贡献率分别达到44.20%、24.76%、22.12%。为实现低碳发展,H市应提高能源终端需求部门电气化率,提升电力清洁化程度,降低用能设备的能耗强度。The LEAP model was applied to forecast the energy consumption demand and carbon emission during 2021 and 2050 in H City of Anhui Province.Based on implementation strength of emission reduction measures,baseline scenario,low carbon scenario and enhanced low carbon scenario were set up to analyze the contribution ratio and explore the path of low-carbon development.Results showed that carbon emission could reach peak in 2031,2029 and 2021 under the 3 scenarios,respectively.It was difficult to achieve“dual-carbon”goals uneder baseline scenario and low-carbon scenario,but it could be achieved under the enhanced low carbon scenario.As for emission reduction contribution ratio,cleaner power,electrification and energy intensity reduction played an important role,whose contribution ratios were 44.20%,24.76%and 22.12%,respectively.To achieve low carbon development,H City should increase the electrification rate of energy end-demand sectors,accelerate the clean-up of electricity,and reduce the energy intensity of energy-using equipments.

关 键 词：LEAP模型 碳排放 情景分析 低碳发展 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]