基于改进SIR模型的地铁站突发事件恐慌传播与干预时间研究  

Research on Panic Propagation and Intervention Time of Metro Station Emergencies Based on Improved SIR Model

作　　者：王宇[1] 王天琪 WANG Yu;WANG Tianqi(School of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通工程学院,辽宁大连116028

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2025年第2期27-35,共9页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：吉林省自然科学基金项目(YDZJ202201ZYTS402)。

摘　　要：为了探究不同干预时间点下的地铁站恐慌传播情况,对干预时间与始发源头进行定量分析,研究了不同始发源头、干预时间与恐慌峰值的关系,在传统SIR模型基础上进行改进并引人个性化模型,建立基于个性化的α-SIR恐慌干预模型,对不同干预时间的恐慌传播情况进行比较。研究表明,当干预时间位于列车到站与站台区乘客自发疏散至站厅区时间区间时,车轨源恐慌峰值为最小值;当干预时间位于站厅区乘客自发疏散至过渡区与过渡区乘客自发疏散至地面区时间区间时,站台源恐慌峰值为最小值;当干预时间位于站厅区乘客自发疏散至过渡区与站台区感知时间区间内时,站厅源恐慌峰值为最小值。基于以上研究结论,提出针对地铁站突发事件,应在最佳干预时间区间使用非立即疏散策略,对乘客进行疏散,实现对恐慌峰值的最小化,尽可能降低踩踏等事故出现的概率。In order to explore the panic transmission of subway stations at different intervention time points,the relationship between different origins,intervention time and the panic peak was studied quantitatively,and the relationship between different origins,intervention time and the panic peak was studied.The results show that when the intervention time is located in the time interval between the arrival of the train and the spontaneous evacuation of passengers from the platform area to the station hall area,the panic peak of the track source is the minimum.When the intervention time is within the time interval between the spontaneous evacuation of passengers in the station hall area to the transition area and the spontaneous evacuation of passengers in the transition area to the ground area,the peak value of plaform source panic is the minimum value.When the intervention time is within the perceived time interval between the spontaneous evacuation of passengers in the station hall area to the transition area and the platform area,the peak panic of the station hall source is the minimum.Based on conclusions,it proposed that for subway station emergencies,non-immediate evacuation strategies should be used in the optimal intervention time interval to evacuate passengers,so as to minimize the panic peak and reduce the probability of stampede and other accidents as much as possible.

关 键 词：干预时间 始发源头 恐慌峰值 α-SIR模型 非立即疏散 

分 类 号：U298.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]