基于变异特征的10 min~72 h综合暴雨公式研究  

Study on the 10 min-72 h Comprehensive Rainstorm Formula Based on Variation Characteristics

作　　者：王东升[1] 李伯根[1] 杨洋 李青[3] 李宝芬[4] WANG Dongsheng;LI Bogen;YANG Yang;LI Qing;LI Baofen(Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Kunming 650106,China;Dehong Branch of Yunnan Provincial Hydrological and Water Resources Bureau,Dehong 678400,China;China Water Resources&Hydropower Science Research Institute,Beijing 100038,China;Kunming Branch of Yunnan Provincial Hydrological and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106 [2]云南省水文水资源局德宏分局,云南德宏678400 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [4]云南省水文水资源局昆明分局,云南昆明650106

出　　处：《水文》2025年第2期29-36,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006705)。

摘　　要：为满足变化环境下工程设计对更长历时、更高重现期极端暴雨设计需求,以云南省不同典型区域长系列短历时年最大降水量为资料,分析了设计暴雨时程分布变异特征,提出了四参数、两变量指数函数形式综合暴雨概化公式,明确了参数推求方法,并进行了精度评定。结果表明:(1)提出的指数函数综合暴雨概化公式可简化暴雨公式推求过程,满足时长10 min~72 h、重现期2~100 a一遇设计暴雨计算需要,模拟精度整体优于现行暴雨公式,考虑暴雨变异特征进一步提升了公式精度。(2)建立了云南省8个典型区域10 min~72 h分段综合暴雨公式,绝对均方根误差在0.012~0.028 mm/min,相对均方根误差在2.7%~4.4%,合格率100%。In order to meet the engineering design requirements for longer duration and higher return period extreme rainstorm under changing environment,based on the data of long series short duration rainstorm in different rainstorm areas,this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of design rainstorm time history distribution.The formula form of four parameter,two variable exponential function long duration comprehensive rainstorm was given,the parameter calculation method was defined,and the accuracy was evaluated.The results indicate:(1)The exponential function comprehensive rainstorm generalization formula can simplify the calculation process of rainstorm formula,meeting the calculation requirements of design rainstorm with duration of 10 min~72 h and return period of 2~100 a,and the simulation accuracy is better than the current rainstorm formula as a whole.The simulation accuracy can be further improved by considering the variation characteristics of rainstorm.(2)The formula of 10 min~72 h segmented comprehensive rainstorm in 8 typical regions of Yunnan Province of China is established.The absolute root mean square error is 0.012~0.028 mm/min,the relative root mean square error is 2.7%~4.4%,and the qualification rate is 100%.

关 键 词：暴雨变异分析 暴雨公式 参数确定方法 设计暴雨 云南省 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]