宁波市地表水资源时空演变规律分析  

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns of Surface Water Resources in Ningbo City

作　　者：张馨予 刘为锋 张学功 钟平安[1] ZHANG Xinyu;LIU Weifeng;ZHANG Xuegong;ZHONG Pingan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;MWR General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design,Beijing 100120,China;Ningbo Municipal Water Affairs Bureau,Ningbo 315300,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210024 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120 [3]宁波市水利局,浙江宁波315300

出　　处：《水文》2025年第2期94-99,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079037)。

摘　　要：宁波市水资源供需矛盾突出,开展宁波市地表水资源时空演变规律研究具有重要意义。将宁波市划分为3个分区,基于1956—2022年地表水资源长系列资料,开展宁波市地表水资源多时间尺度、分单元演变规律分析,在时间尺度上开展了年度、汛期、非汛期3个时间尺度的趋势性、周期性和突变性分析;在空间尺度上分析了地表水资源空间遭遇规律。结果表明:(1)全市和各分区的地表水资源量枯季上升趋势显著而汛期上升趋势不明显;(2)各分区不同时间尺度的地表水资源量均存在18年的变化周期;(3)全市和各分区非汛期水资源量的上升趋势在1992年前后发生突变;(4)不同分区地表水资源丰枯同步概率均高于异步情况,同步概率平均达到67%;同一分区内部丰枯同步概率超过80%。研究成果可为宁波市水资源规划以及水库群联合优化调度提供参考。The disparity between water supply and demand of Ningbo City was pronounced,underscoring the significance of investigating the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of surface water resources.This study categorized Ningbo into three distinct zones and establishes a comprehensive analytical framework to examine the trends,periodicities,and abrupt changes in surface water resources over three temporal scales:annual,flood season,and non-flood season.The analysis was based on the long-term series of surface water resources data from 1956 to 2022.Furthermore,this study elucidated the spatial encounter patterns of surface water resources.The key findings are as follows:(1)A notable upward trend in surface water resources is evident in the city and its constituent zones during the dry season,whereas the trend during the flood season is less pronounced.(2)An 18a cycle is identified in the surface water resources across all zones,irrespective of the temporal scale.(3)The abrupt change of water resources marking the significant upward trend in non-flood season is situated around 1992 for the city and its zones.(4)The probability of synchronous abundance and scarcity of surface water resources among different zones is consistently higher than asynchronous conditions,with an average synchronous probability of 67%.Within individual zones,the probability of synchronous abundance and scarcity exceeds 80%.These insights are poised to contribute to the allocation of water resources and the optimal dispatch of reservoir clusters in Ningbo City.

关 键 词：宁波市 地表水资源 演变规律 丰枯遭遇 

分 类 号：TV121.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P33[天文地球—水文科学]