How does globally accumulated tropical cyclone energy vary in response to a changing climate?  

全球台风累积能量如何响应气候变化?

作　　者：Kaiyue Shan Fengfei Song Yanluan Lin Wenchao Chu Chengfei He Pao-Shin Chu Lixin Wu Xiping Yu 单楷越;宋丰飞;林岩銮;褚文超;何成飞;朱保信;吴立新;余锡平

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [2]Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China [3]Laoshan Laboratory,Qingdao 266100,China [4]Department of Earth System Science,Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling,Institute for Global Change Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [5]Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory,Columbia University,Palisades,NY 10964,USA [6]Rosenstiel School of Marine,Atmospheric,and Earth Science,University of Miami,Miami,FL 33149,USA [7]Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,Woods Hole,MA 02543,USA [8]Department of Atmospheric Sciences,School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology,University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa,Honolulu,HI 96822,USA [9]Department of Ocean Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2025年第6期943-950,共8页科学通报(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41961144014,and 42175029);the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by China Association for Science and Technology(2023QNRC001).

摘　　要：How tropical cyclone(TC)activity varies in response to a changing climate is widely debated.The accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)is one of the indicators of TC activity and has attracted considerable attention because of its close relationship with the damages caused by TCs.Previous studies have focused on detecting long-term trends in global ACE;however,the results are inconclusive.Here,it is revealed that the global ACE demonstrates a striking interdecadal variation over the past four decades,with a historical peak occurring in the 1990s.A close relationship between the interdecadal variability of the global ACE and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)is also identified,with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75(P<0.01).When the IPO is in its positive phase,more TCs with a longer lifetime occur owing to greater coverage of weak vertical wind shear(VWS)conditions over the tropics.The coverage of weak VWS conditions can be verified by either prescribing the observed sea surface temperature in atmospheric models or the observed IPO in coupled models,indicating the significant role of the IPO.Our findings show that the IPO affects the interdecadal variability of global TC activity through moderating atmospheric circulations.

关 键 词：Tropical cyclones Accumulated cyclone energy Interdecadal pacific oscillation Climate change Vertical wind shear 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]