1961—2020年中国不同气候带代表性城市极端降水变化特征  

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Changes in Representative Cities of Different Climate Zones in China from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：黄彩婷[1] 占明锦 许彬 钟水新[3] 占龙飞 Huang Caiting;Zhan Mingjin;Xu Bin;Zhong Shuixin;Zhan Longfei(Jiangxi Climate Center,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiangxi Vocational and Technical College of Information Application,Nanchang 330043,China;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510080,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省气候中心,江西南昌330096 [2]江西信息应用职业技术学院,江西南昌330043 [3]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510080

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2024年第4期262-270,共9页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：江西省重点研发“揭榜挂帅”项目(编号:20223BBG71019);中国气象局青年创新团队项目(编号:CMA2024QN15)。

摘　　要：文中选取中国不同气候带6个代表性城市,利用1961—2020年逐日降水观测资料,采用百分位法确定不同城市极端强降水阈值,分析中国城市极端降水的变化特征。结果表明:年极端降水量、日数、强度以及极端降水量百分比在亚热带湿润气候区的南方城市呈一致增长趋势,特别是广州、杭州市年极端降水量和日数均显著增多;而温带北方城市年极端降水事件变化趋势从西到东大致呈现“增—减”的空间分布格局。在中温带半干旱气候区的兰州市呈一致增长的变化趋势,且年极端降水量百分比明显增多;在暖温带、中温带半湿润气候区的北京和哈尔滨市总体呈减少的变化趋势,且北京市年极端降水量和日数显著减少,哈尔滨市年极端降水强度明显减弱。极端降水事件高峰月发生时间由南向北推迟,主要集中在5—8月,20世纪90年代以来,极端降水高峰月发生频率在亚热带南方城市呈增加趋势,在温带北方城市呈下降趋势。Based on the daily precipitation observational data from 1961 to 2020 in six representative cities from different climate zones in China,the trend of extreme precipitation in Chinese cities over the past 60 years was analyzed,using the percentile method to determine the extreme heavy precipitation threshold for each city.Results showed that the annual extreme precipitation,the number of extreme precipitation days,the intensity of extreme precipitation and their percentage showed consistent increasing trends in southern cities within the subtropical humid climate region,particularly in Guangzhou and Hangzhou.These cities,located near the southeast coast,experienced a significant increase in both annual extreme precipitation and the number of extreme precipitation days.However,the trend of annual extreme precipitation events in northern temperate cities,from west to east,roughly presented an“increase-decrease”spatial distribution pattern.In the semi-arid climate region of the middle temperate zone,Lanzhou showed a consistent increasing trend,with the percentage of annual extreme precipitation showing a significant rise.In the warm temperate and mid-temperate semi-humid climate regions,Beijing and Harbin showed a decreasing trend,and the annual extreme precipitation and days in Beijing decreased significantly,while the annual extreme precipitation intensity in Harbin weakened significantly.The peak month for extreme precipitation events was delayed from south to north,occurring primarily between May and August.Since 1990s,the frequency of extreme precipitation peak months has risen in southern cities while decreasing in northern cities.

关 键 词：极端降水 气候变化 气候带差异 降水阈值 时空变化 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]