基于关键气象因子的上饶地区早稻产量预报模型构建  

Construction of a Forecasting Model for Early Rice Yield Based on Key Meteorological Factors in Shangrao Area

作　　者：陶瑶 陈娇娇 周乾聪 虢黎 刘显男 Tao Yao;Chen Jiaojiao;Zhou Qiancong;Guo Li;Liu Xiannan(Shangrao Meteorological Service of Jiangxi,Shangrao 334000,China)

机构地区：[1]上饶市气象局,江西上饶334000

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2024年第4期287-295,共9页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：江西省防灾减灾工程技术研究中心专项(编号:JX2023M03).

摘　　要：利用2008—2022年早稻产量数据和气象观测资料,分析江西省上饶地区早稻生育期气象因子的时空分布特征,采用滑动平均、回归分析、主成分分析等方法,筛选影响早稻产量的关键气象因子,并建立早稻产量预报模型。结果表明,早稻生育期平均气温、最低气温、有效积温和降水量均呈缓慢上升趋势,而最高气温和日照时数呈缓慢下降趋势。早稻生育期的平均气温、最低气温和有效积温呈自西南向东北递减的带状分布,而最高气温则表现为“南高北低”,降水量为“东多西少”,日照时数为“西多东少”。苗期有效积温、平均气温和最高气温,抽穗期最低气温以及灌浆成熟期日照时数和降水量是影响早稻产量的关键气象因子;基于关键气象因子建立早稻产量预报模型,回代检验准确率平均为96.9%,模型预测结果较为可信。Using the early rice yield data and meteorological observation data from Shangrao area(2008-2022),the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of meteorological factors during the growing period of early rice were analyzed.The key meteorological factors affecting early rice yield were identified and a prediction model of early rice yield was established using moving average,regression analysis,and principal component analysis.The results showed that the average temperature,minimum temperature,effective accumulated temperature,and precipitation in early rice growing period from 2008 to 2022 exhibited a slow increasing trend,while the maximum temperature and sunshine duration presented a slow decreasing trend.During the early rice growing period in Shangrao area,the average temperature,minimum temperature and effective accumulated temperature showed obvious zonal distribution characteristics,which gradually decreased from southwest to northeast.In contrast,the maximum temperature was higher in the south and lower in the north.Precipitation exhibited more in the east and less in the west,while the sunshine duration showed more in the west and less in the east.Effective accumulated temperature,average temperature and maximum temperature during the seedling stage,minimum temperature during the heading stage,sunshine duration and precipitation during the grain filling and maturation stage were the key meteorological factors influencing early rice yield in Shangrao area.Based on these key meteorological factors,an early rice yield forecasting model in Shangrao area was established,achieving an average accuracy of 96.9% in backtesting,indicating reliable forecast performance.

关 键 词：早稻产量 预报模型 关键气象因子 主成分分析 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]