基于降雨强度指数的江西早稻灾损评估方法  

Evaluation Method of Early Rice Disaster Damage in Jiangxi Province based on Rainfall Intensity Index

作　　者：余焰文 桂敏 苏海报 杨熠 Yu Yanwen;Gui Min;Su Haibao;Yang Yi(Meteorological Bureau of Fuzhou,Fuzhou 344000,China;Nanchang Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station,Nanchang 330200,China;Meteorological Bureau of Shangrao,Shangrao 334000,China)

机构地区：[1]抚州市气象局,江西抚州344000 [2]南昌农业气象试验站,江西南昌330200 [3]上饶市气象局,江西上饶334000

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2024年第4期296-301,共6页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：江西省气象重点项目“双季水稻主要气象灾害风险评价技术研究及应用”;中国气象局青年创新团队项目(编号:CMA2024QN15);南昌市农业气象重点实验室项目(编号:2022NNZS204).

摘　　要：为了建立早稻抽穗-成熟期的降雨灾损评估方法,利用2000—2023年江西省89个气象观测站逐日降水资料,建立基于早稻抽穗-成熟期降雨站次数、过程累计降雨量、降雨日数和最大日雨量的降雨强度指数(I_(ri)),并构建早稻减产率灾损评估模型。结果表明:1)2000—2023年江西早稻抽穗-成熟期I_(ri)在时间上以0.024/a趋势增加,但趋势不显著;在空间上呈现自西向东增加的特征,且高值区主要分布在上饶市、鹰潭市以及抚州市的东部一带。2)抽穗-成熟期I_(ri)与全省早稻减产率呈显著正相关,降雨过程站次越多、持续时间越久、累计雨量和最大日雨量越大,则I_(ri)越大,早稻减产越多。3)基于I_(ri)构建的早稻减产率直线模型和二次曲线模型均通过置信度为0.01的显著性检验,R^(2)分别为0.569和0.869。通过对2000—2023年评估结果的检验与比较,发现曲线模型的准确性优于直线模型。气候变化背景下,江西早稻抽穗-成熟期降雨天气多发,需加强防范,尤其是江西东北部地区。To establish an assessment method for rainstorm damage to early rice during the heading-maturity period,the daily precipitation data from 89 meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2023 were used to construct models to estimate the early rice yield reduction rate with the rainfall intensity index(I_(ri)),which was based on the number of rainfall stations,cumulative rainfall,number of rainfall days,and maximum daily rainfall during the process.The results showed:1)From 2003 to 2023,the I_(ri) in Jiangxi showed an increasing trend at a rate of 0.024/a.Spatially,I_(ri) values in the eastern stations were higher than those in the west,and the areas where I_(ri)≥1.70 were mainly distributed in the east of Jiangxi,including Shangrao,Yingtan,and Fuzhou.2)I_(ri) during the heading-maturity period was positively correlated with the yield of early rice.The greater the I_(ri),the higher the number of rainfall stations,the longer the duration,the greater the cumulative rainfall and the maximum daily rainfall,and the earlier the rice yield reduction occurred.3)Both linear and quadratic curve models of early rice yield reduction based on I_(ri) passed the 0.01 extreme significance test,with R^(2) value of 0.569 and 0.869 respectively.The curve model was more accurate.Under the background of climate change,rainfall during heading-maturity period of early rice is frequent in Jiangxi Province,so it is necessary to strengthen prevention,especially in the northeast of the province.The research could provide support for the assessment and prevention of rice disaster.

关 键 词：降雨强度指数 灾损评估 早稻 抽穗-成熟期 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S16[农业科学—农业气象学]