基于灰色关联度的山区泥石流灾害风险评估方法研究  

Risk Assessment Method for Debris Flow Disasters in Mountainous Areas Based on Grey Correlation Degree

作　　者：魏绍琨 Wei Shaokun(No.4 Institute of Geological&Mineral Resources Survey,Henan Mineral Resources Exploration Bureau,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省地质矿产勘查开发局第四地质矿产调查院,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2025年第4期190-194,共5页Environmental Science and Management

摘　　要：山区泥石流灾害破坏力强,影响因素错综复杂,传统评估方法难以全面衡量泥石流灾害风险,为此,开展基于灰色关联度的山区泥石流灾害风险评估方法研究。先分析山区泥石流灾害对生态环境的影响,构建山区泥石流灾害风险评估指标;然后对泥山区石流灾害评估指标的重要性排序,构建风险评估矩阵;最后基于风险评估模型,计算泥石流灾害的风险值,评估泥石流灾害风险。实验结果表明,按照50年、100年、200年一遇的泥石流发生频率作为测试标准,所研究方法可实现泥石流灾害风险的精准评估,具有应用价值。The destructive power of debris flow disasters in mountainous areas is strong,and their influencing factors are complex.Traditional assessment methods are difficult to comprehensively measure the risk of debris flow disasters.Therefore,research on the risk assessment method of the disaster in mountainous areas based on grey correlation degree is carried out.The impact of debris flow disasters in mountainous areas on the ecological environment is fist analyzed to select risk assessment indicators.Then,rank the importance of the assessment indicators for stone flow disasters in the muddy mountainous area is valued to construct a risk assessment matrix.Based on the risk assessment model,the risk value of debris flow disasters is calculated to evaluate the risk of debris flow disasters.The experimental results show that using the frequency of debris flow occurrence once every 50 years,100 years,and 200 years as the testing standard,the studied method can achieve accurate assessment of debris flow disaster risk and has practical value.

关 键 词：灰色关联度 山区泥石流 灾害 风险评估 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]