集成学习框架下水电工程施工事故致因因果发现  

Identifying accident causations in hydropower engineering construction through integrated learning

作　　者：郑霞忠[1,2] 欧妍希 田丹 陈云[1,2] 钟馨凝[1,2] ZHENG Xiazhong;OU Yanxi;TIAN Dan;CHEN Yun;ZHONG Xinning(Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,武汉430010

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第4期1237-1246,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52209163);湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室开放基金项目(2023KSD09)。

摘　　要：为了探究水电工程施工安全风险复杂因果关系,理清安全风险事故演化过程,实现精准化的事故管理,以近年代表性事故调查报告为基础,集成二元项主题模型(Biterm Topic Model,BTM)与决策试验与评估实验法(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL),改进关联规则(Apriori algorithm)算法,建立水电工程事故致因演化规则智能分析模型。首先,利用BTM方法,挖掘事故文本中的关键信息,获得关键信息的特征词,提炼事故致因因素;其次,融合事故致因因素与DEMATEL方法改进Apriori算法,分析事故致因演化规则,获得事故致因因素间的因果关联关系。最后,将提取的14个事故致因关键词建立模型,应用于水电工程的事故分析中,深入挖掘事故诱因,阐明事故演化过程,为安全事故的高效精准管理提供了理论和技术支撑,有助于提升施工现场安全管理质量与效率,实现事故的实时高效预控。This study aims to explore the complex causal network of safety risks in hydropower engineering construction,clarify the dynamic evolution of accident causations,and develop targeted strategies for accident prevention and management.To achieve this,we propose an intelligent cause-causation analysis model specifically for hydropower construction accidents.First,we analyze 213 investigation reports on hydropower engineering accidents as case studies.The Biterm Topic Model(BTM)is utilized to identify and define key causative terms,leading to a comprehensive summary of the factors contributing to construction accidents.Next,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method,in conjunction with an enhanced association rule,is employed to extract robust association rules among the causal factors,thereby clarifying their complex interrelationships.Through this process,14 accident causations of hydropower construction accidents are identified.Using metrics such as support,confidence,and lift,25 strong correlations among these accident causations are extracted.Additionally,the impact,affected,centrality,and causality degrees of each factor are calculated and analyzed,uncovering the complex interrelationships between them.The research findings indicate significant connections among the accident causations.Notably,‘lack of safety awareness’emerges as the accident causations with the highest centrality,exerting the greatest influence on the accident system.Other significant contributors include‘inadequate safety measures’and‘abnormal equipment use’,both of which have a considerable impact.Additionally,‘loose labor management’and‘disorderly placement of items on-site’are identified as key areas that require increased attention during project implementation.These findings highlight the complexity and interdependence of safety risks in hydropower construction,stressing the need for a comprehensive,systems-oriented approach to accident prevention and management.This study offers in-depth insig

关 键 词：安全工程 事故致因分析 文本挖掘 关联规则 二元项主题模型 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]