跨里海国际运输走廊运营风险的贝叶斯网络评估与诊断  

Assessment and diagnosis of operational risks in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route using Bayesian network

作　　者：郭垂江 钟富有 甘鑫 肖佳慧 GUO Chuijiang;ZHONG Fuyou;GAN Xin;XIAO Jiahui(School of Logistics,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610103,China;European Studies Center,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学物流学院,成都610103 [2]重庆交通大学欧洲研究中心,重庆400074

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第4期1267-1274,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：重庆交通大学国际化特色项目第二期研究课题(2023ESC14)。

摘　　要：为识别影响跨里海国际运输走廊安全高效运营的关键因素,从而有针对性地对风险进行预防、监控和规避,结合跨里海国际运输走廊的前期运营情况,全面分析跨里海国际运输走廊运营风险的影响因素,构建跨里海国际运输走廊运营风险评估的贝叶斯网络。运用德尔菲法并结合小组讨论,确定输入节点的先验概率及网络参数,对跨里海国际运输走廊的运营风险进行评估,并进行敏感性分析和逆向推理分析。结果表明:跨里海国际运输走廊运营风险总体上处于“低”水平;组织风险和设备设施风险是影响跨里海国际运输走廊运营的关键子风险;堆场能力不足、信息化水平、铁海衔接延迟和宗教民族冲突是关键影响因素。最后,提出针对性的风险预防及监控措施。研究可为加强跨里海国际运输走廊班列运营管理提供决策依据,同时可为我国参与跨里海国际运输走廊建设提供参考。The objective is to identify the key factors influencing the safe and efficient operation of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route(TITR).To effectively prevent,monitor,and mitigate risks,this analysis incorporates insights from previous operations of the TITR.The operational risk factors were examined through various lenses,including political,economic,environmental,organizational,equipment and facilities,and management perspectives.In this study,we defined influence factors as input nodes,sub-risks as intermediate nodes,and operational risk as the output node in a Bayesian network.By establishing direct arcs among the risk factors based on their attribution relationships,we developed a topology for the Bayesian network dedicated to assessing operational risks associated with the TITR.The prior probability values for the input nodes and network parameters were derived using the Delphi method,supplemented by group discussions.This approach facilitated a comprehensive evaluation of the operational risks associated with the TITR.A sensitivity analysis was performed by calculating the variance beliefs for each input node.This analysis allowed us to assess the importance of the input nodes in relation to the output node,based on changes in the variance beliefs.Reverse inference was conducted by comparing the increased posterior probabilities of the low-level nodes with their prior probabilities.This analysis can determine the significance of the low-level nodes in relation to the high-level nodes.The results indicate that the overall operational risk of the TITR is classified as“low”.Organizational risks and risks related to equipment and facilities are the primary sub-risks impacting the operation of the TITR.Notably,the key influencing factors include insufficient yard capacity,inadequate information levels,delays in railway-sea connections,and potential religious and ethnic conflicts.Finally,we propose targeted preventive and monitoring measures to address the identified risks.These measures include i

关 键 词：安全工程 跨里海国际运输走廊 贝叶斯网络 风险评估 风险诊断 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]