应对气候变化扰动的城市韧性研究理论进展与实施路径  

Theoretical advances and implementation strategies for resilience researchaddressing urban climate change disruptions

作　　者：李含嫣 王峤[1] 臧鑫宇[1,2] 谷浩卓 LI Hanyan;WANG Qiao;ZANG Xinyu;GU Haozhuo(School of Architecture,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Research Institute of Architectural Design and Urban Planning,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300073,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑学院,天津300072 [2]天津大学建筑设计规划研究总院有限公司,天津300073

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第4期1490-1503,共14页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3805204);国家自然科学基金项目(52078327)。

摘　　要：城市韧性理念以其特定的视角与作用,已成为自然灾害应对和城市发展规划的重要理论依托。以气候变化背景下的风险扰动分析为基础,旨在梳理城市韧性理论的内涵演进与发展路径。首先,辨析韧性与风险、弹性等关键概念之间的区别与联系,进而分别基于多扰动类型、多尺度层级,开展应对气候变化扰动的城市韧性作用机制分析;其次,在技术路径方面,将已有研究方法总结为风险分析与评估、情景模拟与预测、智慧应对与决策3个方面,整体形成理论基础-作用机制-技术路径的研究框架;最后,基于研究进展分析,揭示未来研究对象复合化、视角机理化、尺度一体化、方法本土化的发展趋势。结果表明:城市韧性理念在提升城市应对气候变化及多重扰动能力方面具有显著潜力,其理论框架与技术路径为制定有效的自然灾害应对策略和促进城市可持续发展提供了科学依据和实践指导。This paper focuses on the theory of urban resilience in response to climate change disturbances and employs the CiteSpace bibliometric tool to identify relevant literature from core databases in both Chinese and English.The literature data for foreign studies were sourced from the Web of Science(WOS)core collection,while domestic studies were obtained from the CNKI core database.In total,over 2000 publications on related topics were collected.Based on a quantitative analysis of the literature,this study summarizes the research topics,development trends,and technical approaches related to resilience in the face of climate change disturbances.In terms of research focus,international studies predominantly examine the mechanisms linking natural disasters and urban resilience,while domestic research emphasizes the development of planning systems aligned with urban resilience policies.Regarding the research stage,this field has garnered significant attention since 2010,exhibiting explosive growth since 2017.In terms of technical approaches,early research primarily concentrated on mechanism analysis and theoretical development.However,in recent years,technologies such as big data,GIS,and artificial intelligence have become widely adopted.Building on the analysis of risk disturbances in the context of climate change,this study outlines the evolution and development path of urban resilience theory as a response to such disturbances.First,the study examines the differences and connections between resilience and key concepts such as risk and elasticity.It then analyzes the mechanisms of urban resilience in response to climate change disturbances across various types of disruptions and multi-scale hierarchies.Regarding the technical pathway,existing research methods are categorized into three key areas:risk analysis and assessment,scenario simulation and prediction,and intelligent response and decision-making.Together,these components create a comprehensive research framework that encompasses the“theoretical foundation,act

关 键 词：公共安全 城市韧性 气候变化 扰动 理论基础 

分 类 号：X922[环境科学与工程—安全科学]