中国九大流域干湿复合事件时空演变及其驱动力分析  

Spatial and temporal evolution of regional wet-dry compound events and their driving forces in China

作　　者：曹倩倩 黄生志[1] 邓晓雅 段利民[3] 黄强[1] 高月娇 董海霞 王浩[2] CAO Qianqian;HUANG Shengzhi;DENG Xiaoya;DUAN Limin;HUANG Qiang;GAO Yuejiao;DONG Haixia;WANG Hao(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and High Efficient Utilization of Water Resources,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;Yunnan Water Conservancy and Hydropower Investment Company,Kunming 650000,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安710048 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水环境模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]内蒙古农业大学内蒙古自治区生态水文与水资源高效利用重点实验室,呼和浩特010018 [4]云南省水利水电投资有限公司,昆明650000

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2025年第7期111-120,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279026);陕西省自然科学基金重点项目(2023JC-XJ-19);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000203)。

摘　　要：与单一的干旱和洪涝相比,干旱和洪涝之间的突然转变可能会对生态和社会经济产生放大影响。然而,受气候变化和人类活动的影响,干湿复合事件的时空演变与驱动机制尚未明晰。基于此,该研究以中国为研究区域,旨在探明1982—2022年中国干湿复合事件的动态演变特征与驱动因子。以标准化降水指数识别相邻季节间干湿复合事件,并利用Copula函数计算了干湿复合事件的联合概率;采用Mann-Kendall检验以20 a时间序列为滑动窗口探究干湿复合事件的发生概率的变化趋势;运用随机森林探讨干湿复合事件的驱动因子。结果表明:1)1982—2022年间春-夏、夏-秋和秋-冬都更易发生连续干旱事件,发生概率分别为4.04%、4.20%和4.04%,冬-春更易发生连续湿润事件,发生概率为4.69%;2)内陆河流域和珠江流域易在冬-春发生连续干旱事件;松辽河流域、淮河流域、黄河流域、海河流域和东南诸河流域易在冬-春发生连续湿润事件;长江流域易在夏-秋发生连续湿润事件;西南诸河流域易在夏-秋发生连续干旱事件;3)全国范围内,秋-冬连续湿润、冬-春连续湿润上升趋势显著,检验统计值分别为2.91和2.44。从不同流域分析,内陆河流域、黄河流域和海河流域上升趋势最明显的是秋-冬连续湿润事件,松辽河流域上升趋势最明显的是冬-春连续湿润事件,长江流域上升趋势最明显的是春-夏连续湿润事件,西南诸河上升趋势最明显的秋-冬连续干旱事件,东南诸河上升趋势最明显的是冬-春连续湿润事件;4)全国大部分流域的复合事件动态变化的主导因子都是气象因子,而下垫面因子对全国大部分流域的干湿复合事件影响相对较小,但对松辽河流域的影响相对较大。研究成果可为全国干湿复合事件的精准防御提供依据。Sequential floods,sequential droughts,and inter-seasonal alternation between droughts and floods are more frequent than ever before,due to rising global temperatures as well as human activities.Either of these compound events has an impact on vegetation vigor,crop growth and yield,water quality and optimal allocation of water resources.Therefore,it is urgent to accurately identify wet-dry complex events and understand their evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms to help develop adaptation strategies.While single drought or flood events have been investigated in some river basins in China,less attention has been paid to continuous flooding,continuous drought,or alternating drought and flood events,and the dynamics and driving mechanisms of wet-dry complex events are still unclear.Therefore,this study takes nine major river basins in China as the research object,analyzes the evolution law,spatial driving force,and dynamic change characteristics of interseasonal wet-dry composite events,and reveals the influencing factors of the dynamic change of wet-dry composite events.First,four types of wet-dry composite events were defined according to the drought and flood classification criteria,including dry-to-wet events,wet-to-dry events,continuous drought events,and continuous wet events,the standardized precipitation index was used to identify the wet-dry composite events between adjacent seasons,and the joint probability of occurrence of the four types of wet-dry composite events between the four seasons of spring-summer,summer-autumn,autumnwinter,and winter-spring was calculated using the Copula function;second,the Secondly,the Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trend of the probability of occurrence of wet-dry composite events using a 20-year time series as a sliding window;finally,the driving factors of wet-dry composite events were explored using random forests.The results show that:1)the springsummer,summer-autumn and fall-winter periods between 1982 and 2022 are all more prone to successive dro

关 键 词：干旱 洪涝 干湿复合事件 动态变化 驱动力 随机森林 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] S151.23[水利工程—水文学及水资源]