导弹命中概率小子样试验评定方法  

Small Sample Test Evaluation Method of Missile Hit Probability

作　　者：卢道伟 LU Daowei(Unit 41,No.92941 Troops of PLA,Huludao 125001)

机构地区：[1]92941部队41分队,葫芦岛125001

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2025年第3期160-164,共5页Ship Electronic Engineering

摘　　要：随着导弹作战性能的提高,导弹越来越复杂、越来越昂贵,并且要求加快研制进度,经典统计法基于大样本统计推断试验结果,而导弹试验的样本量通常均是小子样。在验前信息可用的情况下,采用Bayes方法,在相同的犯两类错误概率和置信度下,可减小现场试验样本数,加快研制进度;或在相同现场试验样本数下,降低假设检验中鉴定方和研制方双方风险,提高区间估计的置信度。序贯Bayes试验方法充分利用了“总体信息、样本信息、先验信息、现场信息”,更适合成本高昂且具有破坏性的导弹命中概率试验方案制定。Along with the enhancement of the missile operational performance,the missile system is increasingly complicated and expensive.Meanwhile,This paper wants to accelerate the development schedule,classical statistics is based on the test results of large sample statistical inference,and the sample size of missile test is tend to be small sample.Where prior information is avail-able,the numble of field samples can be reduced by using Bayesian method,and the development schedule can be accelerated.Or in the same numble of field samples,the probability of making two types of errors in hypothesis testing can be reduced,and the con-fidence of interval estimation is inproved.Sequential Bayesian method of testing is taking full advantage of"overall information,sam-ple information,prior information,field information",is more suitable for formulating the testing program of missile hit probability.

关 键 词：小子样试验 BAYES方法 序贯试验 命中概率 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]