H省部分地区2015~2021年结核病时空分布及影响因素分析  

Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Tuberculosis and Its Influencing Factors in Some Areas of H Province from 2015 to 2021

作　　者：刘欣儒 王彦富 刘俊萍 刘沼悦 王楠 吴琳 刘雅萍 周玥 尹新乐 梁立波 Liu Xinru(School of Health Management,Harbin Medical University,Harbin,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院社会医学教研室,黑龙江哈尔滨150081 [2]黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心·结核病预防控制所

出　　处：《中国卫生事业管理》2025年第3期339-343,共5页Chinese Health Service Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“结核病防控资源多元剥夺对防控效果的跨层次影响机制及应对策略:公共卫生安全事件冲击视角的研究”(72274047)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2015~2021年H省部分地区结核病发病的时空分布特征及其影响因素,为今后结核病防治工作提供思路和借鉴。方法:收集2015~2021年H省部分地区结核病发病数据,通过ArcMap 10.7软件可视化结核病发病率的时空分布;采用时空地理加权回归模型探究结核病流行的影响因素,并与普通最小二乘法回归模型比较拟合效果。结果:2015~2021年H省结核病发病率呈波动下降趋势,从2015年的90.09/10万下降到2021年的46.4/10万,东部资源型城市的发病率较高。结核病发病风险与可支配收入、道路照明灯数量呈正相关,与日照时数、平均工资、卫生机构总数、绿地面积呈负相关。与OLS回归模型相比,GTWR模型的拟合效果更好。结论:H省结核病发病率大体存在自东南向西北逐渐递减的时空聚集特征,该特征受到经济因素、医疗卫生因素、环境因素等不同宏观因素的影响。各地需因地制宜制定区域防控策略,不断调整优化重点区域结核病防控政策,关注结核病防治服务新模式以降低发病率。Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of tuberculosis(TB)incidence and its influencing factors in select locations of H province from 2015 and 2021,and offer suggestions for future TB control and prevention.Methods The incidence of tuberculosis from 2015 and 2021 in select regions of H province was recorded,and its spatial-temporal distribution was visualized by ArcMap 10.7 software.The geographical and temporal weighted regression model was employed to investigate the elements that contribute to the TB outbreak.The ordinary least squares regression model was used to compare the fitting effect.Results From 2015 to 2021,incidence of tuberculosis in H province exhibited a variable declining trend from 90.09/100000 in 2015 to 46.4/100000 in 2021,which was higher in eastern resource-based cities.The number of road lights and disposable income has a positive correlation with the risk of tuberculosis,but the sunshine hours,average wage,total number of health institutions and green space were negatively correlated with it.Compared with OLS regression model,GTWR model has better fitting effect.Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis in H province is gradually decreasing from southeast to northwest,which is affected by different macro factors such as economic factors,medical and health factors,and environmental factors.It is needed to formulate regional prevention and control strategies according to local conditions,constantly adjust and optimize the prevention and control policies of TB in key regions,and pay attention to new modes of TB prevention and control services to reduce the incidence.

关 键 词：结核病 时空分布 时空地理加权回归 影响因素 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]