中国粮食供需格局的历史变迁:从“南粮北调”到“北粮南运”  

Historical Changes of Grain Supply and Demand Pattern in China:From“South-to-North Grain Flow”to“North-to-South Grain Flow”

作　　者：杨紫洪 张洋[2] 尹昌斌 YANG Zihong;ZHANG Yang;YIN Changbin

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院,北京100081 [3]北方干旱半干旱耕地高效利用全国重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2025年第4期109-123,共15页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：中国农业科学院重大科技任务“粮食产能持续提升战略研究”(编号:CAAS-ZDRW202419)。

摘　　要：保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给始终是建设农业强国的头等大事,对于稳定“三农”基本盘、维护国家安全至关重要。本文基于大历史观视角,利用文献分析法和册载数据,追溯中国粮食供需格局的历史演变。研究表明,宋代以来,“南粮北调”逐渐形成并持续千年成为大一统时期稳定的粮食调运格局;直至20世纪90年代初,逐渐向“北粮南运”格局转变和演化,这一变化的本质是调整农业生产力布局、优化农业资源配置效率的结果。当前,中国将持续巩固提升优势产区粮食产能,要充分认识粮食的公共产品属性,落实粮食安全主体责任,统筹推进区域粮食种植结构优化,构建粮食产业畅通循环体系,完善粮食产业价值治理机制,为全方位夯实粮食安全根基提供有效支撑。Ensuring stable and secure supplies of grain and essential agricultural products has always been a paramount priority for building a strong agricultural power.It plays a crucial role in reinforcing the foundation of agriculture,rural areas,and farmers while safeguarding national security.From the perspective of a macro-historical view,the paper employs literature analysis and archival data to trace the changes of spatial-temporal patterns of grain supply and demand in China.The result shows that since the Song Dynasty,the“south-to-north grain flow”pattern gradually emerged and persisted for over a millennium as a stable grain flow pattern of China.However,by the early 1990s,this began evolving into“north-to-south grain flow”pattern.Such shift fundamentally reflects adjustments in agricultural productivity distribution and the optimization of resource allocation efficiency.At present,China is committed to consolidating and enhancing the grain production capacity of advantageous regions.It is necessary to comprehensively recognize the public attributes of grain,implement primary responsibility for grain security,and promote the coordinated optimization of regional grain planting system.Additionally,efforts should focus on establishing an efficient grain industry circulation system and enhancing the governance mechanism of grain industry value chain,thereby providing effective support for the comprehensive consolidation of grain security foundations.

关 键 词：粮食供需格局 历史演变 生产力布局 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]