生产范式、政策空间与东南亚国家的产业升级困境--以越南的产业发展为主线  

Productive Paradigms,Policy Space,and Industrial Upgrading Dilemmas in South-east Asian Countries:A Case Study of Vietnams Industrial Development

作　　者：秦北辰 QIN Beichen(Institute for International and Area Studies,Tsin-ghua University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际与地区研究院

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2025年第2期24-49,154,155,共28页Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：本文以越南的产业发展为主线,讨论了当代东南亚国家的产业升级困境及其国际政治经济根源。与更早融入跨国分工生产的“亚洲四小虎”相比,越南的制造业发展更多地依赖规模扩张而非技术进步,因而极有可能停滞在附加值相对更低的生产工序,面临较“四小虎”更严重的产业升级困境。考虑到越南的制造业发展并未面临明显大于“四小虎”的国内障碍,其产业升级困境加剧的首要原因仍在国际政治经济层面。自21世纪初起,生产范式的变革显著限制企业技术升级的机会,政策空间的萎缩又大幅提高政府给予支持的难度,这两方面因素都使得越南更易受困于外商主导下劳动最为密集的生产活动。本文的研究表明,目前,东南亚发展中国家实现经济追赶的难度已经显著升高,这也意味着中国制造在全球产业链重构中仍将保有较强的竞争力。Based on the study of Vietnams industrial development,this article explores the challenges of industrial upgrading faced by contemporary Southeast Asian countries,as well as the international political economy factors behind them.Compared with the“Four Asian Ti-gers”,which integrated into global production networks earlier,Vietnams manufacturing growth relies more heavily on scale expansion rather than technological advancement.As a re-sult,it is highly likely to remain stuck in production stages with relatively low value-added,facing more severe upgrading difficulties than the Four Tigers.Given that Vietnams domestic obstacles to manufacturing development are not significantly greater than those faced by the Four Tigers,the primary reason for its intensified upgrading difficulties lies at the international political economy level.Since the early 21st century,shifts in productive paradigms have sig-nificantly reduced opportunities for technological upgrading by firms,while the shrinking of policy space has made it much harder for governments to provide effective support.These two factors make Vietnam more vulnerable to being locked into labor-intensive production activities dominated by foreign firms.The study concludes that the path to economic catch-up for developing countries in Southeast Asia has become increasingly difficult,which also implies that Chinese manufacturing will likely maintain strong competitiveness amid the on-going restructuring of global value chains.

关 键 词：产业升级 产业政策 生产范式 制造业 东南亚国家 越南 

分 类 号：F133.54[经济管理—世界经济]