中美战略竞争下东盟国家对华对冲战略的策略选择  

The Tactics of ASEAN CountriesHedging Strategy toward China under Sino-US Strategic Competition

作　　者：王琛 陈奕平 WANG Chen;CHEN Yiping(Pakistan Research Institute,Anhui Normal Universi-ty,Wuhu,China;School of International Studies/Academy of O-verseas Chinese Studies,Jinan University,Guangzhou,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学巴基斯坦研究院 [2]暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2025年第2期136-153,158,共19页Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“周边中小国家的‘利基外交’对我国外交环境的影响与政策研究”(21CGJ003)。

摘　　要：对冲战略是东盟国家处理与中国的关系时采取的一种战略选择,其源于东盟国家对大国崛起和大国关系变动所带来的不确定性的威胁感知。然而,东盟国家在不同外交政策议程上的威胁感知程度存在差异。在这种差异的影响下,东盟国家在不同议程中对华对冲目标也有所不同。为实现相应的对冲目标,东盟国家针对不同议程采取了相应的策略。在竞争性议程中,东盟国家倾向于采取对抗性策略,以规避风险;而在包容性议程中,则更愿意选择合作性策略,以实现对华对冲战略的利益最大化。当前,中美战略竞争所形成的体系压力,对东盟国家的对华对冲战略产生了更复杂的影响,其策略选择随之发生变化。但东盟国家的自身实力地位以及中美关系的变动,限制了其对华对冲战略的实施,影响了战略的实际效用。深入研究东盟国家的对华战略逻辑,对于中国的周边外交工作具有重要的理论和现实意义,能够为相关政策制定提供有益的参考。Hedging strategy constitutes a strategic choice adopted by ASEAN countries in managing their relations with China,originating from their perceived threats stemming from uncertainties associated with the rise of major powers and shifts in great power dynamics.However,the degree of threat perception among ASEAN countries varies in different foreign policy agendas.Under the influence of such differences,ASEAN countries also have different hedging goals towards China in different agendas.To achieve their corresponding hedging goals,ASEAN countries adopt corresponding tactics in different agendas.On the competitive agenda,ASEAN countries prefer confrontational tactics to achieve the goal of“avoiding risks”.In contrast,on the inclusive agenda,ASEAN countries prefer cooperative tactics to a-chieve the goal of“maximizing benefits”of the hedging strategy towards China.Currently,systemic pressures arising from Sino-US strategic competition are exerting increasingly com-plex impacts on ASEAN countrieshedging strategy towards China,inducing corresponding adaptations in tactical selection.Nevertheless,due to the influence of ASEAN countriesown strength status and changes in Sino-US relations,ASEAN countrieshedging strategy towards China has certain limits,which affects the actual effectiveness of the strategy itself.The study of the logic of ASEAN countriesstrategy towards China has theoretical and practical signifi-cance for Chinas neighboring diplomacy and can provide policy references.

关 键 词：中美战略竞争 东盟国家 对冲战略 外交政策议程 威胁感知 

分 类 号：D822.33[政治法律—政治学]